York 4.05

 

A wide open Handicap but unless you can make a fast start you can be a hostage to fortune drawn high.

 

Mahrajaan will take a lot of beating and could provide William Haggas with a very good day but dropping back in trip I think the market has found him and the main bet angle I think would be a small e/w double with my friend The Advisors tip down at Newmarket in the 3.50 race.

 

Rogue Bear and Intelogent are real dangers, but I fear Rogue Bear will need to settle better from a tricky Draw and Intelogent may just be better suited to Straight Tracks and a mile. Anmaat may just need the run but is hugely impressive and progressive and definitely one to TRACK onwards. I don't think that Just Fine and Caradoc will be quite good enough to master their Draw and conditions here but should be competitive at the very least. Barishnikov is another who could run a good race but not quite well enough handicapped at the moment.

 

Greatgadion made my short list and was one of the last ones to be discarded and IF there was a non runner would be a reserve, the trip, mark and run style are very positive and it's just the draw that concerned me in the final analysis. Achelos for Andrew Balding was also considered long and hard from Stall 3, I just have a niggle about the stamina here and I suspect it'll lead them a long way in to the race but then just get swamped in the final furlong. Cockalorum race a stormer in this last year when drawn low and I'm convinced there is a decent pot in this horse but a high draw would be a big negative for me and at a big price he would be an exchange bet suggestion.

 

I am left with FOREST FALCON for the Johnstons who would have a number of options for this race, as we said yesterday, you know what you are most likely to get from this Yard on Good to Firm Going and that's a horse who is race fit, tough as teak and who will try to run prominently and even though Stall 13 is not ideal I'd expect Franny Norton  to ride the horse to best effect. I really like BRILLIANT LIGHT and will be very disappointed if it's not in the first 3 home. Danny Tudhope rides for Bin Suroor, drawn 1, assured stamina as it drops back to 10 furlongs and I can't find any reason not to confidently back it.

 

At bigger odds SPIRIT DANCE just caught my eye as a well drawn horse with a hint of being one who is slowly coming to hand and ready to fire. It's not proven on Good to Firm but there is always a lovely covering of grass here and I doubt it's jarring ground. LA TRINIDAD has some excellent Course form and has come back close to a win mark again, its gets a nice pitch in Stall 4 and also far less scopey than some; this more exposed handicapper should give us a great run for our money.