York 3.15

 

The Draw bias here often assists those drawn on a rail when there is "soft" in the Going description. The visual evidence yesterday suggests High may be the place to be, historically, they can find a bit of fresh ground to help those drawn Low, and of course on Good ground you'll often see an arrowhead down the middle. In a nutshell, pace is as good an angle as anything and we'll spread the load a bit across the draw spectrum and base analysis too on other factors that we feel are significant.

 

GULLIVER is favourite, it won this is 2019 and 2020, it's not had a great season but remains a capable horse and gets a high draw in Stall 22. The handicap mark is eye-catching and the Yard are farming big Sprints everywhere. You can't leave it out of deliberations and I'll have an each way saver on it.

 

Dusky lOrd is up 9lbs for an impressive win at Ayr and drawn in Stall 1 (so the market is playing the draw extremes too), a 9lbs penalty and the fact it finished tailed off on its only other run here just puts me off. Lucky Man has had an excellent 3 year old campaign but is 5lbs above win mark and may just have had enough now for the season. Mr Waygu has had another great season, owes us nothing and looks sure to ping out and run prominently again. It can run a place at least but from Stall 15 I'm hoping it sets the race up a bit for others.

 

I'd be worried about the Going for Silver Samurai who may need it a bit firmer, Dakota Gold seems to have gone off the boil after a hot spell earlier in the season, Lethal Nymph is very much in form but up another 7 lbs and I think that may just be too much at this point of the season.

 

Admiral D is another good 3 year old but i think its in a bit deep here today, Air Raid IS a danger, very much a Spring and Autumn horse, kept away from Firm summer Going, it returns off a break of 128 days and I'm strongly suggesting you add it to your TRACKER SYSTEMS as I can see it benefitting from this run and being very competitive in a few weeks and trends suggest that . Hyperfocus has won off 85 and placed off 91 and may be better at Haydock but could run a place if everything drops right and I can't resist a £1 e/w on VOLATILE ANALYST who won this race last year when drawn in stall 7, has had a poor season after an early win at Doncaster but who has come back down to a mark of 97 and gets a draw in Stall 5. Old Bergerac too is hard to fully discount but may prefer it a bit firmer.

 

I was most keen though (in addition to Gulliver and Volatile Analyst) on BIELSA, POPMASTER and LAUGH A MINUTE

 

LAUGH A MINUTE was runner up in this last season. It's run well in Ireland all season and could get a lovely tow off Mr Wagyu up the Stands rail and next to Gulliver. I can't find any reason why it won't be very competitive IF the draw bias acts in its favour. POPMASTER has been quiet since a big run at Royal Ascot and was very unlucky in this race last year getting badly hampered near the finish. Its drawn in Stall 8 so that offers some options and off a mark of 99 I just feel it could re-emerge from a quiet spell in the big Handicaps.

 

Finally, I think BIELSA is another one who is possibly going to spring to life. it's run well enough without really threatening in some of the big Handicaps all season but gets the aid of Blinkers here and having been penalised mark wise for winning the Ayr Gold Cup last year has finally worked a way back down to a comparable mark of 97 (won at Ayr off 98). I really fancy it a lot today and a draw in Stall 9 offers it a chance to go any which way it wants if there is any perceived bias.

 

TRACKERS - Bielsa / Popmaster / Laugh A Minute (£1 e/w on 9 Volatile Analyst @ 20/1) - saver e/w on 15 Gulliver @ 15/2 if you wish.