York - Wednesday 11th May

NORTHERN - York 1.50 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 11 run - Going Good (some early morning light rain may just maintain Going as genuinely Good)

 

The hot favourite here is Gaassee for William Haggas, if you want a saver you are welcome at 6/4. The stable had a similar hot-shot turned over in this race last year and whilst the strong possibility and probability is we are fighting for 2nd / 3rd place, I think that's where the value lies.

 

On To Victory has a squeak on some 2020 form but has a bit to prove, Sam Cooke will probably benefit from the run on past evidence, Forza Orta is up 5lbs and upped considerably in Class too. Graphite is of interest on one bit of Ascot form and looks overpriced at 30/1 IF you want a craft £2 bet to place on the exchanges at silly place prices.

 

The pair I'm most confident in to attack and hopefully beat up the hot favourite, and if failing in that meeting the secondary objective of some place money are GLOBAL STORM who had a win at the trip and form over further, race fit from some runs at Meydan, the Yard remain in good form and I just think at the price early, if the favourite does drift the early price will look silly so grab some. 

 

At bigger odds DARK JEDI is race fit, not quite the scope of some of these but may have been well placed by Tim Easterby to pick up some nice place money.

 

TRACKER - Global Storm / shrapnel - Dark Jedi (may be a crafty Tricast with the favourite??)

 

-------

 

York handicaps can be massive confidence boosters but also massive confidence destroyers and the Draw at this stage of the season is really a lottery. All past logic suggests that low to middle IS the place to be on Good ground or better, the high draws tend to be better on softer going. I always like to have a £2 saver each way on either flank so before we get to the actual selections IF you want that cover bet to enhanced places up to 6th then Wobwobwob in Stall 1 and Woven in Stall 22 are both good enough if there is a massive bias on either wing. (Both at 16's)

 

I considered a fair number and discounted the following. Aberama Gold has had a wind op; I think best watched here but one to follow if and when it regains full fitness and health. Strike Red has winning turf form off 76 and AW off 87, is race fit and has a squeak but a turf mark of 92 just put me off although it could be well drawn in 8. Pendleton, Summerghand, Mr Lupton and Dakota Gold are all great Sprinters whose best form may be behind them but still capable of popping up if all falls right for them. I fear them all but they don't make the final cut today.

 

Count D'Arsay is one I pondered long and hard but i just think its best at 5 furlongs but a likely pace angle to ensure a good end to end gallop from the start.

 

Two stand out for me and they are the favourite, although 6/1 represents good odds given the confidence in NOMADIC EMPIRE, its got Course and Distance winning form, O'Meara will have him cherry ripe for this and the annual "best Trainer at York" award is bigger in these parts than anyone outside of Yorkshire can imagine!. He's had a run, looks ideally drawn in stall 6 and as a 4 year old is one who may still be unexposed and scope to strengthen and improve. With luck in running I really do like him a lot. MR WAGYU ticks all the right boxes for me too, its also had a run, drawn in Stall 9 and John Quinn remains vastly under-rated as a dual purpose Trainer in my opinion.

 

I can't split nor can I ignore the Kevin Ryan pair BIELSA (dr 12) and BERGERAC (dr 16), if I had to I'd just go for BIELSA who has had 2 runs in non handicaps, an excellent big field Sprint CV including the Ayr Gold Cup last season and primed to run well. BERGERAC would come in to play if middle to high is where the pace/bias is, its had 3 goof runs already and bang on the right mark. I think it's going to become a telling fact that the abnormally dry Spring will see a lot of these Sprinters at peak a lot sooner than usual, thats something to remember in the early / middle part of the season.

 

If there is one dark horse who I'll have a bit of shrapnel on it's VENTUROUS to enhanced places, a Course winner off 95, run well off marks over 100 since and has had a run and still capable at 9 years of age off a mark that jumps off the page at 97, having had a nice prep run.

 

 

---------