York - Sunday 22nd May

 

As you'd expect plenty in with chances.

 

At the sharp end Kihawah won well here last time but got a 7lbs penalty and did have the run of the race it won. I think 5/1 ish is a fair price and if you want an e/w saver on it feel free to do so, not for me though today. White Willow is hard to assess on a Thirsk win and although clearly one on the up, I'm looking for more exposed types on nice marks with some vital big field CD experience. Charging Thunder is another one which is hard to assess, what we do know is that so far it doesn't like big fields or York!!, so we'll watch and not invest on that one today. Pride of Prior for William Haggas is perhaps the least exposed but I'm not convinced enough yet to dip my toes into the water with this one.

 

At the bottom end, the bigger priced end of the market Eclipse Du Lunar did need 2 or 3 runs to get competitive last season for Tim Easterby and lurks at a massive price off a very nice mark with some half decent Course form. The draw just put me off a tip today but if you want to play £2 win and place on the exchanges and can get matched for silly prices, well worth a dabble. Sociologist is one tipped 2 days ago, comes out very quickly and another that's hard to completely ignore. Casilli could come on for the step up in trip and would rate a serious danger of doing so, and Annandale has a run style that worries me if it gets the trip also.

 

I was left with a short list of 4 horses though and will have main tips on a pair. IF you want a small shrapnel bet on the others feel free. 

 

My main confidence is in HOWZER BLACK. It likes to run prominently and is very well drawn to do so and to avoid traffic at the business end if they get the fractions right. It stayed on well up the hill over a furlong less the last time it ran,  and shows every chance of staying the trip on this flatter track and I can't find any reasons not to invest in it.

 

HAPPY is a very similar horse in profile to Golden Flame yesterday and I can see a similar front running run if it gets out on level terms from a middle to high Stall. It looks tailor made for this kind of race and I think a cracking each way price and a horse with some scope upped in trip.

 

The other pair who made the shortlist are TOPANTICIPATION a Course and Distance runner up in similar races off marks of 74 and 75 who made a nice return on Monday, is well handicapped and only a high draw was a bit of a niggle. EL PICADOR was 3rd here least time out behind Kihawah but was hampered and didn't get a clear run at a key stage but stayed on well. At the price I fancy him to again be right in the enhanced place money.

 

TIP - Howzer Black / Tracker - Happy - shrapnel if you want it - Topanticipation + El Picador

 

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I narrowed this one down to 3 horses with plenty of others considered.

 

I think that Emeraty Hero, Super Superjack, Evaluation and Wor Willie are all about where they should be in the market. Emeraty Hero has to prove stamina, Super Superhero and Evaluation are both in cracking form, rising quickly up the handicap and the question for both is, where is the ceiling?.  Wor Willie kind of begs the stamina and ceiling question and is the biggest danger to the selections on my analysis sheet.

 

A few at big Odds I wouldn't completely be surprised by if they outran Odds are Bollin Neil, Kings Advice and Geremia, but I'm quietly confident in my final 3.

 

GHADBBAAN seems very overpriced to me. A Course and Distance runner up off 65 and 67 last year, it has had 3 runs already and runs from Stall 2 off a mark of 66 with a very good pilot booked. It looks like very solid each way material to me at a nice price. TENDENTIOUS is a bit of a slow burner for the O'Meara Team. It won on its seasonal debut at 2 miles and is upped by just 2lbs. It seems like one who could run up a nice sequence from that sort of starting mark.

 

HAIZOOM has won off 60 and 68 at 2 miles in 2021, won very impressively at 1 mile 5 furlongs at Hamilton in the first Leg of this series and they look like they want to focus on it. It's upped to 79 but I just think they are going to run in this series for the Prize money and keep going off increasing marks as the horse improves.

 

 

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TRACKER - 

 

Fakenham 4.25 Topofthecotswolds

York 4.35 Mattice / Latin Lover 

York 5.05 Orbaan / Lion Tower (La Trinidad ; is a CD tracker also on the system and both Harswell Duke + Mostawaa were tracked from 14 days ago Leg 1)

York 5.35 Dakota Gold / Aberhama Gold (multiple others but these are York specialists)

 

(suggested bet a small Unite Patent Perm with 2 highlighted in each highlighted race)