Tuesday 5th December
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
LINGFIELD 2.35 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 12 run - Standard (may be slow)
I am happy to take on Villalobos at the price which has much to do with the jockey. It's got a Course and Distance win in March off a mark of 53, often apprentice ridden since and back to a mark of 54, so I can understand the market move but on balance there are a pair I fancy a lot more as e/w value.
Star Of Saint Louis has Course and Distance winning form too off a mark of 51 for previous Trainer, has gone 1-1-2 at Wolverhampton on Tapeta is a solid and dangerous rival but not great value in the price for me. Crazy Maisie is the other one i noted, a runner up here off a mark of 50 the won at Chelmsford off 51, upped to 54 here and a decent each way poke, my third top rated so can be reserve in the event of a non runner.
I really like STAR OF EPSOM, a Course specialist who showed clear signs of running back in to form last time off a mark of 51, his last Course and Distance win was off a mark of 50, runs off 52 here with a decent 3lbs Claimer, so impossible to ignore on analysis.
A dark horse at a price may be the unexposed IFTIKHAAR who ran a career best race on it's sole run here and who runs off a similar mark and may have some untapped scope still
Tips (1) Star Of Epson / (2s) Iftikhaar
-------
LINGFIELD 3.05 Handicap - Class 5 - 2 miles - 11 run - Standard (may be slow)
At the top of the market Fair Dinkum is in good form and will take all the beating but I am confident one can beat it on collateral form at least. Artisan Dancer is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 65, returns after 4 runs on Tapeta off a mark of 70 and you've always got to beware connections. See Me Dance has a 12 furlong pedigree but improved for a step up to 14 furlongs last time at Wolverhampton, up 3lbs for that and Course debut here upped another 2 furlongs, too many "if's" for me at the price. Sharp Distinction is a cracking servant I like a lot, steps up to 2 miles penalised for a win and that Amy Murphy / Hector Crouch combo pair a Trainer and Jockey to follow but there are a couple I just fancy more, Sharp Distiction though would be reserve if we have a non-runner.
I'm adding Smith to the Tracker, Course expert who will surely need the run, an unexposed one if you wanted a small side e/w bet is Prescotts 3 year old SPRITZIN, it will have more scope than any of these and although running too freely a couple of times is one to keep onside, so I'm adding that to my AW Tracker too.
On the day though the claims of MUKHA MAGIC and KALAMITY KITTY stand out.
MUKHA MAGIC won over Course and Distance off 77 here in January, its last decent run was here also off a mark of 74 and although out of form a return here and off a mark of 69 might be a bit more than just trying to recapture form! KALAMITY KITTY was beaten just under 2 lengths by the favourite here (Fair Dinkum) last time and stayed on in eyecatching style, it gets a 3lbs pull and with more pace in this race is taken to reverse that form and go very close here.
Tips (1) Mukha Magic / (2) Kalamity Kitty