Thirsk - Tuesday 4th April

 

I am very much drawn to this very mediocre race on paper for an almost complete lack of either form at the trip or indeed signs in the horses Pedigrees that the trip will be suitable. Something has to win the race and horses have to place or even gain an enhanced place with a few bookies.

 

Philios has tried the trip and weakened twice at it but has stronger credentials than 9 of the others on form or on a close analysis of Pedigree. EDWINA SHEERAN for Roger fell and Johnny Peate who delivered on Saturday has proven it can run to and through the finishing line at the trip on Slow AW at Southwell and that really is stand out form.

 

Of the remainder, the proven stamina lines of the likes of Galileo for OSKAR on Handicap debut at big odds and WILPENA POUND at decent odds, at least suggests that they could improve for this trip.

 

 

There is far more tangible form to go on here and 4 horses dominate the top end of the market.

 

Socks Off is Hurdle fit from a strong Yard and may have been cleverly placed to take advantage of fitness but Flat form to date suggests the trip may now be on the short side. Poster Child would be a real danger on form of last season but evidence suggests may need the run today, Fen Tiger has easily the most compelling form but a penalty and the race fitness issue suggest the price is on the short side.

 

The one in the top 4 in the betting who looks most likely to win to me in FORGETMENOTBLUE who is AW fit and who has proven it can handle soft turf.

 

Sugarpiehoneybunch did suggest in one run at 10 furlongs that this sort of trip may be optimum, Seven For A Pound runs for the Ruth Carr yard who seem to be in decent nick on the AW and can't be discounted, Purple Ice is another is another who has shown signs of ability but soft turf is an unknown. Marzbuet has a similar profile but may need the run and better ground too. 

 

SMART LASS is race fit, has good form mainly at Musselburgh but did show one strong bit of form on this sort of going at Ayr over further than this and that run more than the Musselburgh wins suggests with race fitness it can nick a place at least here. Of the remainder, a small investment on VISITANT if you want a third option may give you a good run for your money with race fitness assured and a solid if unspectacular profile in similar conditions. This may represent a good place chance with the fitness advantage.