Sedgefield 4.05

 

The Going is officially described as Heavy / Soft in Places. This is an extreme test for Hurdlers, I can't think of many run over much further and it may play into the hands of P2P type horses and horses who also run over chase fences in terms of the extremity of the trip in these conditions.

 

At the head of the market Atomic Angel is upped 5lbs for an impressive win over Course and Distance last time, that was on better Going and a couple get a nice pull in the race off Atomic Angel from that race and an earlier one. It's the horse they all have to beat but at the price and in worse ground it's a challenge we'll take on. A win saver on AA for those that want it would not be a bad move. 

 

Storm Force One may not be ideally suited by the trip or the Going but Diakosaint has 3 mile P2P form and could be helped by a tongue strap (a bit different to a tongue tie) and would rate a big danger but not a particularly appealing early price.

 

Lady Vinetta gets a 7lbs pull with Atomic Angel for 9 lengths and on better ground would have been a tip of some kind but I can't find anything on Lady Vinetta's form that suggests it will be better or more suited to mud so will leave it today but one worth tracking when Going dries up a bit. Onestepatatime has one very interesting piece of P2P form if you delve deeply enough finishing close up to a horse now rated 104 over fences, so off 84 if it could replicate that  it would be a massive danger, the problem is its never really done much since so one to fear but risky in terms of investment. Moidore will do what it always does, run an honest race and plod on but the Going would not be ideal even for this wonderful servant. 

 

Thatbeatsbanagher has one bit of old Irish form at 3 miles plus of note in mud but nothing other than that to really suggest it might fire here and Banana Joe, who is in the Tracker on the basis of a couple of 3rd place finishes over 3 miles on Good to Soft Going is worth continuing to track onwards but like Lady Viviana may be best waiting for better Going.

 

The three I like in terms of an investment are AVITHOS; FAME AND HOPE and SQUARE VIVIANI.

 

AVITHOS pops up once in a blue moon and can be deeply frustrating. However we can't ignore a win off 82 here in 2021 for Brian Hughes which followed a win off 76 also in Heavy and with Hughes enlisted again for this long distance traveller off a mark of 78 today then it would defy logic not to tip it in terms of the blindingly obvious.

 

FAME AND HOPE is fine at the trip, the Trainer has said it likes "heavy Going not pudding Going" ; frankly we won't know until Racing if its soft type heavy or pudding like heavy but there has been plenty of rain in the past week and I'm happy to take the chance at the price. SQUARE VIVIANI is more speculative but we know what the Trainer and Jockey can do when conditions suit. It's been ages since this Chaser ran over hurdles and its jumping has affected confidence and results more than it's engine not working so there is every hope it can enjoy these smaller and less challenging obstacles, get in to a nice rhythm and gain confidence and there is plenty of evidence from emphatic heavy ground wins at 3 miles to suggest its over-priced.