Saturday 23rd March
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
Doncaster Lincoln Meeting -
Traits, I don't want to get too fixated by the Draw on the Straight Mile as pace is as important as the underfoot nuances and over the past few years whilst we've seen Stands side favoured when it is heavy or soft going, low Drawn horses have equally filled places and won races. A middle Draw is not a negative as close video watching evidence suggests middle draws will often gravitate to one flank or the other.
I'm more focussed on early season form, an ability to run well fresh, clearly ability to handle soft>sticky ground and an indication from Trainers, if you can find comments, that their Yard has some degree of confidence.
So let's hope we can find 2 winners and some nice places today
2.25 SPRING MILE - Class 4 - 1 mile - 18 run - Soft > Heavy
I looked long and hard at Magic Memories and Titian at the top end of the market, I think Magic Memories may need the run and although Titian placed in this race last year, it too lacks the prep AW run it had then, so both are feared but overlooked here. Thunder Roar has form in the ground but i think is a better 7 furlong horse and anything winning today will need to be running right through the line and not handing on for 100 yards running on empty. Arthurs Realm may not appreciate the going, Dirtyoldtown will surely need this run based on previous season form and the other one I considered was Look Back Smiling. Kalikapour and Helter Skelter bring some decent Irish form to new UK yards and both I'm told by Michael would have sporting e/w chances.
My tips in preferred order are-;
HARSWELL DUKE - who won this last year off a mark of 83, has had a similar AW preparation this time, form faded last season hence a reduced mark of 75 here, but I put a lot of that down to unsuitable better ground for a large part of the summer and the proven Course and Distance and Going and early season evidence suggests another bold run
WILDFELL - one I think who looks very unexposed and seems to be overlooked. A Course winner, a Distance winner elsewhere, likes the Going and crucially has had an AW run. The Draw will allow it to follow the pace on either side at the Jockey's discretion and we have to hope they have the right tactics.
MAYSONG - is totally exposed and what you see is what you get, what we got last year was a great placed run and off a very similar mark and the far rail to help, I confidently predict another bold bid
EXPRESSIONLESS is lightly raced and therefore may have some untapped scope, best form last season was early and on exactly this sort of surface and I am confident of a bod run
For some minor £1 e/w fun bets at bigger prices I like the look of HORTZADOR who may be regressing but who usually runs well fresh and in these conditions and CLEAR ANGEL who had a decent run in this in 2023 and was only 3 lengths off the winner and has a squeak if tuned up and I suspect it is!
(1) Harswell Duke / (2) Wildfell / (3s) Maysong / (4s) Expressionless / £1 e/w - Hortzador / Clear Angel (3 points staked plus the £1 e/w's)
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3.35 LINCOLN Handicap - 1 mile- Class 1 - 20 run - Soft > Sticky
Whether the Spring mIle tells us much draw wise remains to be seen but sometimes you can be fooled by a previous race and ignore the obvious pace angles that may be in play.
I think Dutch Decoy is a decent pace angle here drawn high and there are others similarly drawn low.
The Irish Team have 2 strong contenders in Chazzesme and Blues Emperor, the former tries to achieve a 5 day cross Border raid on the respective Lincoln's and having spoken at length with Sean who found a glut of placed horses on Monday behind Chazzesme, we both feel that the 5lbs penalty, the quick turnaround and the very deep ground at The Curragh may be a bit too hard to enable a double attempt succeeding. Blues Emperor is a nice progressive type with place chances.
Mr Professor will be winning races I'm sure this season but may be not today, Farhh Too Shy is a similar nice type but may need the run and a bit of help from the handicapper, Revich too looks a bit too high in the weights and Veltier definitely looks one for the not too distant future and one I'll TRACK forwards.
I was left with a shortlist of 7 and will have a £1 e/w smaller bet on the last 3 of those.
My main picks in preference order though are-:
LIBERTY LANE who ticks all the right boxes for me and despite being quite short is one you cannot discount as 4/1 may actually represent good value.
JOHAN won this in 2022 off a mark of 102, runs off 106 and is reunited with Silvestre De Souza, conditions are no excuse and a mark of 106 is within range. The Yard specialise in early bigh field handicap winners and I'm shocked to see how lightly raced this horse actually is, they will surely have him spot on and won't be scared either to put him away after this for bigger options in optimal conditions later on.
MIGRATION won this last year off a mark of 107 and runs here off a mark of 111 with a 3lbs claim. The lack of runs is also eye-catching and again it's a "target horse" who is readied a few times each season and not flogged in summer ground when its chances are lessened. The same applies to Johan and they are horses likely primed to the day and ready to run massive races again.
THE GATEKEEPER has strong form claims and should get a lovely tow into the race.
My £1 e/w picks are SPIRIT GENIE drawn 22, ideal conditions and if there is a hIgh bias this one should be in the first 5-6 home on that basis optimising the opportunity and ALPHA CRUCIS who is a bit of a dark horse for me here, drawn 19, certainly best in these conditions and off a very nice racing weight.
I'm adding a late £1 e/w in LATTAM as I;m hearing from a very reliable source that this ex Irish Lincoln winner when with William Haggas has settled very well in to Julie Camachos yard and they actually quietly fancy that it's more forward at this time than they thought initially and has done some eye catching work in the past week. Such info has always to be taken with a pinch of salt but this source is far more often than not very accurate!
Tips (1w) Liberty Lane / (2) Johann / (3) Migration / (4s) The Gatekeeper - £1 e/w Spirit Genie / Alpha Crucis / Lattam - (4.5 points staked + £1 e/w's)