Ripon 4.45

 

At the top of the market is the ex Irish horse Cryptos Dream;  a facile winner at Brighton recently with a 5lbs penalty. Whether that was a flash in the pan or it's a bit of a handicap bandit?, I'm happy to find out!

 

Dr Rio is a versatile type from 7 to 10 furlongs but it's more the handicap mark over 55 that puts me off today than any stamina concerns. Coconut Bay could be a danger on best form if a recent wind operation has any desired positive impact and Lincoln Rockstar has a squeak on best form too. Mac Ailey is in form and solid but like Dr Rio it's a horse who can struggle off what is now an inflated mark of 52. Calcutta Dream has mixed form messages but clearly appreciated Good to Firm Going.

 

That leaves me with a couple of speculative pokes that do jump off the form page a little at me after detailed analysis.

 

WE STILL BELIEVE runs infrequently on turf but based on close analysis of when it does it is a very competitive handicap mark, Going won't be an excuse and it has proven stamina for the trip. I'm quietly confident of a bold run. KNIGHTS SPEAR is a 3 year old Maiden who has tried a few trips already but some efforts when weakening over further but being prominent at this distance suggest 10 furlongs is worth a try and on the basis of the logic and visual evidence of those runs it is considerably overpriced.