Redcar 4.30
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
NORTHERN - Redcar 4.30 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 17 run - Good (cloudy not wet)
This is a tough straight mile and takes some getting. You can look at many races and get totally confused by the draw, I believe that following the pace and being able to slipstream a horse for a long way is best here, it's fine to be prominent but very tough to lead all of the way.
La Trinidad is one of the few genuine Class 2 horses in the race but looks burdened by the handicapper and not great value in my eyes. Painters Palette is a classy and progressive horse but the handicapper may just have its measure for now off this mark. Belhaven won this race last year off a 7lbs lower mark and although feared I don't think Stall 1 is ideal for a horse that would be better in the thick of the action. Give It Some Teddy on the other hand won this race in 2018 and 2019 with a different trainer and its testament to Tim Easterby that he's still winning decent races, but not for me today.
At big odds and enhanced places I would not put anyone putting £1 e/w on Maysong @ 16/1 who has a Course and Distance win off a mark of 76, runs off 81, may be well berthed in Stall 10 and who IF it rained and turned SOFT , should be upgraded to a "shrapnel bet" near the off. Park Street @ 33/1 was another who caught my eye at silly odds with some solid Class 4 form and I'll have a quid e/w on that at the price.
My clear best 3 rated though confidently jumped off the page at me and analysis has increased that confidence.
SHALADAR was a shade unlucky in a decent race last time, likes these straight 1 mile tracks and ticks all the right boxes for me for a Yard who'll have identified one for the race and planned accordingly. TITIAN has some 10 furlong form and has been fading a bit at a mile in some decent races. I am minded to think that when chance has gone they've not been hard on the horse as opposed to needing a wind op or some sort of aid. Graham Lee is an ideal type of jockey to have in a race like this where you may need to be on the pump for a fair way and I'll be disappointed if not in the first 3-4 here. At bigger Odds for some shrapnel I really like STRONGBOWE a Course and Distance runner up off a mark of 77, fine on Good Going, looks well handicapped off a mark of 76 and a middle draw and although exposed a horse who will run to and through the line and give you 100%.
Tips (1) Shaladar / (2) Titian / (3s) Strongbowe