Redcar 3.15

 

A compelling contest considering it's very early in the Flat season. There has been a bit of rain and the Going is officially Soft, I think it'll be more on the soft side of Good but this is a very long 1 mile straight, I know all 1 miles straights are 1 mile but this one seems to stretch stamina more than most and many are on seasonal debut and on past evidence most will need the run. In terms of any Draw bias, I don't really think there is anything significant here, it's plenty wide enough to have no excuses and it's more about where the pace is and tagging on to it. I haven't gone and looked specifically for Draw angles but by a quirk of fate and based purely on form and analysis, ended up with a nice spread across the Draw.

 

We tipped HORTZADOR in the Lincoln, it was one of a number that never really got in to the race though as it didn;'t tag on to the pace angle in that race. It will undoubtedly have been trained to be fit for that race so brings that fitness here and that will be a big asset. Its a Course winner and a Distance winner and fine on the ground so really it has no excuses and drawn in stall 3 has enough pace around it and in the middle to run a better race today.

 

Looking at the market the favourite Broken Spear also comes fit from the Lincoln, it did run more prominently than Hortzador and came with every chance before fading, it will be a tough rival but I do think its better at 7 furlongs than a mile and would have to be coaxed home here and a few might run fresh and then fade playing more to staying types. A good chance but not in the final 3 for me today. Il Bandito has a chance on past form but has moved to a new Trainer in James Horton, and I'd rather watch and learn about the horse and trainer today.

 

I really think Ruth Carr is one to follow early season, definitely up to the end of May. She had a torrid 2021 with health issues in the string and only caught fire late on. She'll have some well handicapped ones as a result and Copper And fire will be a real danger here and just missed being in the final three and will be reserve if we have a non runner as it has won before off a 400 day break!

 

Orbaan off top weight is actually well handicapped but usually needs a run, as had Delgray Boy, who made rapid progress last year and very much one to keep an eye on. I don't leave either of those out lightly nor Larado, fit from the AW from mick Appleby's yard, like Ruth Carr another to keep onside early season as he does get his horses very fit. At bigger odds I did look at Rainsofcastane and Crownthorpe , the latter for Richard Fahey usually needs a run but gets optimum conditions here and could outrun Odds and the latter has had a spin over hurdles and is a bit intriguing back on the Flat.

 

I do though really like the chances of BOWLAND PARK and BOARDMAN today. Bowland Park won off marks of 80 and 84 in soft conditions last year, a mark of 87 doesn't look beyond it and it can run well enough fresh and in Jason Hart it has one of the north's top jockeys. BOARDMAN drops in grade, and won a 3 timer back in May last year off marks of 75 / 80 / 90 it understandably struggled in Class 2 company after that but this would be a shade easier than that and back off a mark of 90 it could outrun odds and if you look right back it did win fresh in France as a youngster off a break of 200 days plus.

 

I've got one drawn 3, one drawn 9 and one in 16, so as I mentioned at the top, covering draw angles too.

 

 

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Expanding on the Ruth Carr and Mick Appleby angles are a couple who shoud strip fit, should like soft conditions and both have stamina proven over a little further, so I'll have a shrapnel single e/w and a craft little early season e/w double on the following-:

 

Redcar 1.30 2 Eponina @ 11/1 (majority of major bookies go odds to 4th place incl B365) 

Redcar 2.05 7 Kylie Rules @ 10/1 (majority of major bookies go odds to 4th place incl B365)