Pontefract Monday 6th June

 

They tend to run far side drawn low here on Good to Firm or Good but the softer it gets the more likely they are to come Stands side drawn high. I've factored that in but by a quirk of fate, most who would prefer it to be soft are drawn low and some who won;t welcome rain are drawn high, so we have to solve a complex riddle!

 

At the top of the market are Corinthia Knight and Mach Pride, both have solid claims but son't represent the sort of market value that makes me want to invest in them. The more rain the better for Stallone who has Course and distance runner up form in soft, Round The Island is drawn in stall 3 and back below its last CD win mark but at 9 years of age it'll be disappointing if we can't find something to beat it. Kapono runs from the widest stall (14) off top weight, you'd need it soft to take advantage of that and although ground variable I think he needs a respite handicap mark wise.

 

Mr Orange is a Course and Distance specialist but throws in some right duds too here, he's drawn 1 and best on Good to Firm or Good, he'd be a much stronger chance if it hadn't rained but I'm just not convinced as any more rain is to his detriment. Singe Angais is very interesting at the price, drawn 13 for Nidel Tinkler and mark and trip are fine but it wouldn't want too much rain so it's a very fine balance with this one between the weather , going and draw, a big run wouldn't surprise though and it would be my reserve.

 

I just prefer DRISH HERO at the bigger prices, drawn in stall 12 it needs to settle better but versatile from 5 furlongs choke out to 7 furlongs if they can settle it, its ground versatile and one I think who can be very competitive from a nice draw if its softer but also get out quickly and get to the far rail if that side suits and as long as it settles within the first furlong and can take a blow, one I really think can outrun its Odds.

 

The one i most like though is LATE ARRIVAL, went in to my notebook on penultimate run at Nottingham, you can ignore the last run at Thirsk when those drawn high dominated and this one had no chance realistically from Stall 1, it gets a berth in stall 9 today and actually that may be a nice position to have tactical versatility based on where the pace is and where the ground conditions take them, I like it a lot and a nice price too.

 

 

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There aren't too many in here with proven stamina on this real search for some stamina track!

 

The pair at the top of the market look dangerous and tough opponent s but not really much e/w value about Mahanakhon nor the in form Bavadages who is upped in trip.

 

Both Zoom Zoom Babe and Bit of A Quirke could outrun their odds but the pair i'll take each way against the field are BERRY EDGE and DANDYS ANGEL.

 

DANDYS ANGEL is a notoriously slow starter so you have to be prepared for that. If it can just get away on terms though it clearly will love the trip (and gets further) and does run to the line, with so many short runners in here, I logicise that he'll be picking horses off quite early in the race and mentally that will be great for him and keep him interested and I expect him to come with a wet sail in to a place at least.

 

BERRY EDGE has won at this trip at Beverley last July up the hill there off a mark of 67. They've explored trips from 12 furlongs to 2 miles since and now step back to 10 furlongs up the hill here off a mark of 64. Provided the horse has not been soured by not having the stamina for 2 miles and not lost too much confidence then i'd expect a much improved showing here and the more pace on early, and likely to be from mile horses, the better.

 

Visualisation is very important in my analysis so hopefully I've got the right specs on in imagining how this will pan out.