Northern Wednesday 16th February

NORTHERN Expert-:

 

 

This could be a tough puzzle to crack and in the final analysis I found it hard to decide between 5 of the 15 declared, so probably a race for small investments on that basis.

 

Of the ones who didn't mark the shortlist Scoop The Pot would not be a hopeless case despite the big price as it won on penultimate start at this trip and was reported to have "coughed" when pulling up next time out, on another day with fewer that catch the eye he may have warranted a small investment and not one to discount on future runs. Into Overdrive for Mark Walford lacks experience but may develop over time, Dragonfruit has won on heavy but over 2 miles and may just lack the stamina to see out this trip in the conditions. Ladronne is another who has to prove stamina and the race it won over shorter did somewhat fall in to its lap.

 

Chef D'oeuvre drops in Grade and in trip and on past form ticks many boxes and it is being backed and 9lbs below its last win mark and if regaining some confidence and able to settle in to a nice rhythm it could take all the beating but there are a few too many "if's" at the price for me. Mr Scrumpy has form figures of 5-4-3 and is down to a nice mark and another one who may have warranted an investment on another day.

 

I can put a cigarette paper between Deep Charm ; Camp Belan, Manetti ; Firak and Sigurd in that order.

 

DEEP CHARM is in form and from an in form partnership. It won a Class 5 off a mark of 100, was then runner up off 109 in similar race at Kelso and runs again off a mark of 109. How much is still in the tank is the only real question for me?  CAMP BELAN is an unexposed, progressive ex P2P recruit for Lucinda Russell who was runner up over Course and Distance here off 107 and runs off 110 today. MANETTI is a bigger price but won off 108 at Ayr in similar conditions on its penultimate run and has winning form on Heavy Going for the Alexanders. FIRAK is a bit like Camp Belan, an ex 3 mile P2P winner, unexposed for the Skeltons and has had 2 pretty average Chase runs over shorter having won a Hurdle over shorter in Heavy Going. I can see the login now moving up in trip here to 3 miles. SIGURD is a big price but is a Course and Distance winner who may just be running in to some form; its most recent win was off a mark of 100, it has won on Heavy Going, I like the Course and Distance form and it did have a stellar run last season winning off 82, 88 and then 100 and back off a mark of 99 it is far from being a busted flush, does it need a few more pounds off, probably but the conditions are ideal.

 

Of the unexposed pair I will side with CAMP BELAN. Of the winning pair I will just prefer DEEP CHARM to Manetti and I can't resist some shrapnel on SIGURD.

 

That's my logic and thought process laid bare and if Manettin pips Firak with the other unplaced I'll be crawling behind the settee.

 

 

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Shuthegate has won in the mud at Warwick and i know that it's Trainer John Spearing is held in great affection by Ian and a few of you older Members and will be a tough nut to crack. Beat Box is upped 10lbs and lacks proven stamina and Uisce Ur may still need the run. Luckello has to prove stamina and that it can handle the mud but is totally unexposed for Olly Murphy and similarly Roger Rarebit is not without a chance for Tom Lacey.

 

The most obvious one for me is AZOF DES MOTTES who is an unexposed P2P horse who was a Course and Distance runner up off a mark of 95 last time.

 

Both SILK OR SCARLET and AFRICAN GLORY are in the SP2A Tracker system and of the pair SILK OR SCARLET who was 3rd of 15 at Ayr last time for Nick Alexander looks a cracking each way price. AFRICAN GLORY was disappointing last time and gets a Visor and a returning Tongue Tie here and its best recent run was at the trip in heavy Going off a mark of 79 so 72 here is appealing.

 

I can't also discount LOUGHERMORE at very big odds who has a Course and Distance win off 105, has been running over further but is dropped back to this trip off a mark of 95 with a 7 lbs Claimer up.

 

I'll go with those horses.

 

 

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William Cody looks the one to beat but is very short considering the likely conditions. Moscow Spy makes Handicap debut as does Camambert Electric and both will be dangers if handling the mud. Black Minster drops in trip after running well to this kind of distance over further last time, Arctic Road comes off a long break but was decent in 2019 and may be worth keeping a long term eye on.

 

SNOWED IN and GREAT RAFFLES at big prices are an old favourite over Course and Distance and one of those big price Hammond horses that you can never discount respectively and worth a bit of shrapnel.

 

My pair for a more serious investment though are DUTY CALLS and EX S'LANCE.

 

DUTY CALLS drops in trip, and its profile suggests it has no excuses at the trip, in the conditions nor off this mark. EX S'LANCE is a bit more speculative. I was intrigued to note the Trainers comments the last time that this horse won off todays mark of 79. That's not the only coincidence as that was the last time they used a Claiming Jockey and the Trainer suggested that was part of the reason for the improved run. A decent 7lbs Claimer in Phillip Armson gets the leg up today and it's just too much of a coincidence for me to ignore.