Northern - Ayr 1.20

 

The top 5 in the market are fairly tightly packed price wise, Atlantic Dancer has clearly had training issues but ran prominently to this kind of distance in a much better effort here last time and will be the one to beat. Bonny Houxty also looked to be returning to some kind of form after a fallow spell but niggles with that one about the heavy Going. Sophie Olivia doesn't look great value on form shown so far and Racks Cross has 3 mile P2P form so should be happy at the trip but most of its better runs have been on better ground.

 

At the top end the best option may be Desaray Girl for Micky Hammond, previously in better Class races than this one and looks to have been found a decent chance here, I will play a small reverse Forecast on ATLANTIC DANCER and DESARAY GIRL but there are a couple I fancy more in terms of each way value.

 

Before I come on to those a look at a few others, Gine Sacre has French form on soft and at this kind of trip but yet to really show it over here; Etoille D'Ecosse makes its handicap debut for the Alexanders and like Whoa Black Betty who won its last 2 runs last season on better ground and who may still need this are certainly worth tracking forwards from today. Thats My Dubai once won over 3 miles plus in soft and placed on Heavy at this trip for Rebecca Menzies and off marks around 86>88, its running off a mark of 76 with a 5lbs Claim here today for Kevin Hunter, for whom its shown no worthwhile form, but the ability would appear to be there is the Trainer can unlock it and at the price may be worth a bit of shrapnel.

 

YOUR PLACE is in the Tracker system and showed a lot more zest at 3 miles last time, the step back in trip looks logical, it's OK on soft and frankly is in the "no excuses saloon" today off a nice mark. The other one i liked is SOUTHEAST ROSE its won on Heavy Going over shorter at Hexham and Kelso, all best form is on heavy and with some experience at 3 miles in P2P days the mark of 75 with a 5lbs claimer up looks too good to ignore.

 

TRACKERS - YOUR PLACE + SOUTHEAST ROSE (note reverse f/cast suggestion in above write up + shrapnel on 11 That's My Dubai at 50/1 - bits 80/1 with 365)