Newcastle Thursday 17th November

NORTHERN 

 

Newcastle 1.03 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 7 and 1/2 furlongs - 15 run - Good to Soft, plenty of rain forecast so assumed Soft > Heavy by race time

 

If the forecast is correct this could be a test of attrition in heavy Going.

 

At the head of the market Fenland Tiger who has won off marks of 89 and 96 and now upped to 100 is the one to beat, it gets the trip, handles soft and if you want a win saver at the price I wouldn't put you off but in the likely conditions I'm looking for a mudlark or two.

 

Bouncing bobby is a danger but is basically an ex Flat horse whose best has been on better Going and is upped in trip. Micheal Scudamore brings 4 horses up, all well backed (see 1.38 race below) and LET ME ENTERTAIN U is a 3 mile P2P winner who made a promising seasonal debut and who looks the best value at the top end of the market.

 

Great Raffles won its last 2 races last season and may just I feel need this off an increased mark of 82 for the always dangerous Hammond and Chaston-Smith combo, Pileup is unexposed after just 5 runs and steps up in trip, Misscarlett is all over the place trip wise, does have some form at this distance though but wouldn't be one that would want too much rain. Ribeye is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 84 on Good ground in April and will probably need this and better ground. High Yield makes handicap debut but better so far over shorter trips. 

 

At big odds I wouldn't be surprised if MOonlight Glory and GOLDRAPPER outran their Odds in the conditions, Moonlight Glory's best form in Ireland was at this sort of trip but it's upped 14lbs by the no doubt curious UK handicapper, GOLDRAPPER gets 3 miles, return to Hurdles and is race fit and could nick a place.

 

The other one i really like though in the conditions is the sometimes inconsistent THATBEATSBANAGHER its won off marks of 95 and 96 at this trip and considerably further, that proven stamina will be a big asset and and off a mark of 100 it has a sporting chance.

TRACKERS - Let Me Entertain U + Thatbeatsbanagher (shrapnel - Goldrapper) - reserve is Moonlight Glory @ 40/1

 

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FATIQUE DE L'ISLE is from the Scudamore yard (same as Let Me Entertain U) has a favourites chance so I suggest an e/w double / or a win double on those pair.

 

Quiet Flow is unexposed and upped in trip and holds solid claims if getting the extra distance,Ballintoher Boy is a massive danger too a Course and Distance winner, runner up last time but not a great each way price for me and not sure to beat the pair above.

 

At decent each way odds we have CATLIN who is 2-2 at the  Course and is on a nice mark here and it'll be disappointing if its not placed at least. Welsh Reign is an unexposed 3 mile P2P horse who I have added to the TRACKER as it's a decent prospect later on in the campaign, Well Cliche has proven stamina and won;t mind the Going but on past evidence will certainly need the run and improve for it. 

 

At big odds the veteran Chase The Wind could be a threat but wouldn't want it softer than soft but CASTLEGRANGE is worth some shrapnel as its best Irish form was on bottomless ground, it gets 2 miles 5 furlongs and has run well to the line at that trip suggesting this is in range and it can't have enough rain.

 

The other one i really like today is SKYHILL who needed a recent seasonal debut and sure to improve for it, likes this type of Going and runs off a competitive mark.