Newcastle NH 1.07

 

A decent Handicap Hurdle and we see the return of PERMISSION GRANTED who was a nice winner for me back in October, well backed in to 9/2 when winning at Ayr. That selection came off the back of the analysis of its previous run when third and that form was franked significantly yesterday as the winner of that race Fairlawn Flyer, went in again at Ffos Llas off a 7lbs higher mark.

 

PERMISSION GRANTED gets a 5lbs penalty but off a break of over 3 weeks looks the type to follow up on a Course whose configuration is very similar to that at Ayr.

 

The main dangers are the unexposed Our Idic Boy for Ian Williams who could be progressive and ABINGTON PARK who has run well at Hexham and Huntingdon winning and placing for Alex Hales. The main differentiation for me though between Permission Granted and Abington Park are the very different types of course that AP has won off and I think the long straight will suit PERMISSION GRANTED a lot more.

 

Fraterculus is only a 4 year old and has shown glimmers of promise and will be a danger but the other one to note is MAMOO, a winner in the past for SP2A tipsters and who ran well in patches last season, most notably a runner up at Wetherby off a mark of 92, having placed earlier last season off 102. They try a Visor here to perk the horse up and it looks dangerously well handicapped off a mark of  88 IF and the key is if, it's not just regressive to the point of having got too sour. I'll venture a small bit of shrapnel to find out.

 

Staking wise at around 4/1 I will have a WIN BET on Permission Granted, I wouldn't put you off an each way saver at 9/2 if you can get it, will play a small reverse forecast with Abington Park and have some shrapnel on Mamoo.