Newcastle 7.30
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
AW - Newcastle 7.30 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile - 11 run - Standard
I always say this is the toughest 1 mile on the AW anywhere and can often need some 10 furlong stamina.
It's a race where you could run 10 times and probably get 8 of them winning in turn and that's what the AW is like to a degree and don't let anyone convince you otherwise.
I don't think any of Alexander James, Win Win Power or L'Argent offer any market value and although Irish Flame is very consistent and deserves a win, it usually finds one or two too good for a reason and just lacks that winning instinct I think.
Martins brig is knocking at the door and was one of the last to be discarded and Showmethemoney is dropping to a very appealing mark; and another who made the final shortlist of 4 horses.
I really like a couple at a price though, DRAGONS WILL RISE is a course and Distance winner, has Course wins too at 10 furlongs off marks of 71 and 77, it runs off a mark of 68 here with a 5lbs Claim and will rely on a fast not dawdling pace but one I can see picking up and passing plenty in the final 200 yards.
LOCAL BAY is also a Course and Distance winner, worth another go at a mile for sure and one who could run prominently and take some pegging back and when I am on a closer, I like also to be on a pace angle to cover both bases. LOCAL BAY is fresh after a break and a run at 7 furlongs and the Yard is in form and chasing the AW Trainers wins crown.
Tips (1) Dragons Will Rise / (2s) Local Bay