Newcastle 4.15
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
NORTHERN - Newcastle 4.15 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 4 and 1/2 furlongs - Standard
I particularly like to attack races over a mile or further here. Mile races are on the straight and really test the stamina of a horse and the pace understanding of the Jockey. Races over further are run on the Round Course and join the straight at around the 4 furlong pole and I think offer a different perspective to Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Southwell which are more on the turn. Kempton is of course right handed and on the outer Track has a similar kind of run in.
For those that don't know the full reason why, apart from the fact it tracks the turf track down the back straight, it is also because there are some very nice houses round that part of the Course so they don't run races round there under floodlights due to Planning issues or use minimal lighting. This makes Newcastle in my mind for any horse running over a mile or more something of a specialist track.
This is a competitive race and probably 8 of the 11 runners could be classed as having a serious chance. I'm happy to take on Award Dancer at a price below 2/1, its undeniably a worth favourite but its recent win at 14 furlongs belied a profile that was previously at a mile and included a Course win here at a mile off todays mark of 76. Valley Of Flowers is second favourite with a recent record of 1-1-1-3 including a win at 2 miles here off a mark of 65 and it now runs off a mark of 71.
Percy Willis was a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 70 at 20/1 on penultimate run, so clearly capable but its career profile suggests it a horse that "wins in turn" but generally then waits a fair while for the next win. Shake A Leg has had a wind operation after a disappointing 12 months, is on a very attractive mark IF reviving and one I've added to the TRACKER!. We Still Believe really intrigues me and would be my third rated in analysis (so call it "reserve" if a n/r in the two picks); a Course win off 54 on penultimate run, made up late ground at this trip last time and my only slight niggle is a mark of 59. Libby is an interesting recruit for Rebecca Menzies and will have desperately needed stable debut, I think it'll need another run or two but the Yard is one of my favourites with an exceptionally talented Trainer, some of its Irish form is very interesting and it did run here as a Novice for Phillip Makin. One to TRACK also.
I can't totally rule out GHADBBAAN as it has interesting and proven stamina, it rarely runs on the AW and those runs have been over an inadequate 1 mile and an excessive 2 miles in terms of stamina. It's a very solid turf handicapper and it'll be interesting to see if it can transfer that form at the right trip. One for the big price £1 e/w fans!
My clear preferences though are FOX FLAME and PERIPETIA.
FOX FLAME is a typical battle hardened 3 year old for the Johnstons. a winner off marks of 66 and 71 at Southwell and Lingfield and only a slow start at Lingfield last time halted a winning sequence. I think this track plays more to its stamina strength and off a career high mark of 74 I think it can go in again. PERIPETIA has a win at Wolverhampton over 14 furlongs off a mark of 56 and wins here off 59 at this trip and 64 at 14 furlongs. It is the type to stay on best off a decent pace, I think FOX FLAME will provide that pace and off a mark of 58 I think PERIPETIA is very well handicapped. It does have to prove it handles Newcastle but I think it will and the vision would be the pair decently clear on a head-bobber on the line!
Tips (1) Fox Flame / (2) Peripetia
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