Newcastle 2.00
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
AW - Newcastle 2.00 Class 6 Stakes - 1 mile 2 furlongs 42 yards - 13 Run - Standard to Slow
A race in which every horse carries 9 stones exactly and if you look at the Racing Post Ratings a disparity from a mark of 42 up to a mark of 50.
There are a few who will find this on the short side if not early pace but the slightly deeper surface as they will have harrowed to keep frost and snow off could be an advantage. A few have proven Course and Distance form and some unproven at the trip including the favourite from the Brian Ellison yard. An ability to handle Tapeta and these long straights would also seem an obvious advantage.
Sezina for Ellison, a bandit if ever I've seen one, has proven form on the sand of Southwell over 1 mile, looks a strong finisher, although it may be more a case of just plodding on at Southwell, but not yet as impressive on runs it has had on Tapeta. At Odds below 3/1 I can leave it alone, at 7/2 or bigger, I may suggest a small saver bet but it's not a convincing favourite for me.
Coup De Gold has poor Course form, often stone last with a few midfield runs and Hajey who is third favourite will be one of those who will need a pace to aim at and could be a closer if getting it together with the likes of Tapis Libre.
Just Jean is consistently just off the places here but probably a solid form yardstick and could run a place, it's hard to quantify Dreadnought for another AW bandit Mick Appleby and Melina Atrevida may be worth a look based especially on one run on turf at Leicester, impossible to know if Dreadnought or Melina Atrevida will handle Tapeta though>
I'm left with a pair who at the prices give me most confidence of some net profit on the race.
MAN OF VERVE was a Course and Distance winner last September off a mark of 46, unlucky when making a challenge last time off a mark of 47. We know it likes the surface and gets the trip and it looks the strongest each way banker in the race to my Newcastle eyes.
DON'T BE SURPRISED at a bigger price likes Tapeta and runs OK here. It's better runs have been on the deeper Standard to Slow. It's best run at the trip saw it beaten around 2 lengths and it's best Turf form is over 9 furlongs staying on up that very steep incline at Hamilton which is probably a stiffer 9 furlongs than most 10 furlongs on turf. At the price and with the form on Standard to Slow I think it's over-priced.
TRACKERS - Man Of Verve + Don't Be Surprised (in preference order in case you want just one or a tracker and lower stake) .