Newcastle 1.50
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
NORTHERN - Newcastle 1.50 - Conditional Jockey Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 6 furlongs - Good to Soft (likely dead ground) - 17 run
There is a mix here of horses proven over just shorter stepping up in trip and some proven over 3 miles stepping down in trip and a smattering of inexperienced types on handicap debut or early in their handicap careers. I think the Going and nature of the race should favour those with some proven stamina who should enjoy a decent pace and the long finishing straight.
I'm not convinced that Usuala Dancer and Glory Heights at the top of the early markets are great value with something to prove stamina wise, Secret Secret is on a high mark and may not be as dangerous away from Kelso or Cartmel and on this more conventional track. Lincoln Burrows showed improved form last time and was the last one to be dropped from my investment list so a handy reserve if needed.
Lewa House, Emotional Roller and Scalloway Boy are all genuine dangers on form so far but all have to conclusively prove they are better at this trip than and two and a half miles and visually none of them look to me like they are crying out for this trip yet, especially on dead ground. Theirshegoes is in the Tracker and was the other one in addition to Lincoln Burrows that I pondered the longest over for an investment and one I hope doesn't come back to bite me, a future winner but not quite today and we'll continue to track it.
I'm very keen on a couple who look ready to win and they are RICKETY GATE who has just been fading close home over 3 miles and looks ready to win, Nicky Richards looks to have found an ideal opportunity and the young rider seems above average. BUSHMILL BOY is another who looks as if this intermediate trip might be ideal and I think very good each way value, to enhanced places. I'll also have some shrapnel on FFREE PEDRO who comes from the McCain yard on a workable mark and on one specific bit of form at Bangor last Spring really does look a genuine dark horse here if just jumping a little better. Finally, MISSCARLETT whose overall form hides a few good solid runs in this sort of race and off a very nice mark of 74 could run an enhanced place at big Odds.
Tips (1) Rickety Gate / (2) Bushmill Boy / (3s) Ffree Pedro / (4s) Misscarlett