Kempton 8.00

AW - Kempton 8.00 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 3 furlongs - 14 run - Standard to Slow.

 

There are a few at the head of the market that on detailed analysis I'm quite happy to take on, a few who jumped off the page at value prices and a few to TRACK plus one that is very intriguing.

 

Glory Nights is in form at Wolverhampton over shorter trips and runs with a penalty, not really shown up here before in a couple of runs and with the step up in trip and mark is one I'm happy to take on. It's more of a gamble to take on Geelong whose form figures read 3-4-3-2-5-1-2-1- including Course and Distance off 56. A mark now of 67 yet not at all easy to leave out but my head says surely its vulnerable and  opposable here. Its A Love Thing won last time over Hurdles, has some AW winning form at shorter but i have to ask "why come here", I can only assume they want to keep the horse ticking over with the NH ground now a lot softer than its optimum, so although from the North, happy to oppose it.

 

Niarbyl Boy is one I will TRACK as it looks sure to need the run and the other one I'll track and at a huge price is Secret Potion, it was placed here last Autumn, is priced 40-50/1 and likely to need the run but the adventurous of you might like a spare £1 e/w on the nose!

 

Page Three comes from the Balding yard and they get some cheek-pieces on, they may improve the recent poor form but will need to as the combined 99 lengths defeat  in the last 2 races suggest a miracle is needed. I'm always wary of these types though, it's not back-able by any sound logic but a better run should be noted!. The final one to mention who occupied my thoughts longest without investing is Story Horse, it ran very well on return running prominently and only fading late on, a drop of a furlong looks ideal and only one thing stops me from actually tipping it, that's the draw, I simply think it'll have to use up too much energy to get a prominent slot from Stall 14....a handy reserve though if any of these are non-runners!

 

I'm very sweet on CHARLIE ARTHUR, the last twice it's run here he finished 2nd and 3rd off marks of 75 and 77, its fit from the Turf and runs off a readjusted mark of 67 after some disappointing turf runs. It may be simply out of form or regressing BUT the horse could be very well handicapped on the previous Course and Distance form! FEHYA is from the Marcus Tregonning yard and has an AW win at Newcastle, the Tapeta there tends to be quite deep so the Standard to Slow here should suit ideally. it won at Epsom on Good to Firm turf for Andrew Balding and those wins were off marks of 63 and 64, I think it may be a horse who can find a niche on the AW so a mark of 67 looks reasonable.

 

The "joker" if you like at a big price for some shrapnel is the French bred MAPPATASSIE for Clive Cox. Disappointing so far in the UK but a winner in France, it's been quite highly tried, the handicap mark is coming south and it's dropped from Class 3 in to Class 5 it really could be anything but the early price certainly tempts me in!

 

Tips (1) Charlie Arthur / (2) Fehya / (3s) Mappatassie