Kempton 7.30
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
AW - Kempton 7.30 - Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile 3 furlongs - 14 run - Standard / Slow
A decent field assembled for this Qualifier and a couple really jumped off the page at me, as did one at a big price.
At the top end of the market, I am happy to take on Liseo, it ran well enough on a recent Course run but is 1-15 on the AW and there are others who I think are better handicapped and also have stronger form at more attractive Odds. Legacy Power is the one with most untapped potential in here making handicap debut after 3 runs, it's in that "could be anything" bracket but having looked closely at the 3 runs, I don't think it's crying out to be backed. Ocean Heights was a late starter who has had a couple of extended breaks and having gone to David Pipe has become something of an AW specialist. 3-2-1 here at Kempton in Class 5 and recently Class 4, off marks of 74-74, its now off 79 and I am seeing that as above it's ceiling, time will tell but others I think have more scope!
Geelong has a Course record recently of 2-1-4-3 but is another upped in Class here and this is a very competitive Class 4 race so the Class 5 and 6 form may be difficult to repeat off an inflated mark of 67. God Of Thunder is one I looked at and returned to and was last off my investment list. an impressive win off a mark of 70 but struggled off 77, connections can't be ignored here but it's a first Course run and I just felt the mark is the issue. I think that both Let Her Loose and Dembe will need this run and I am going to TRACK Buxted Too, a Course win off 68 heralded a golden run last Spring up to a mark of 83, this is no spring chicken and it looks too high off 83 on current form.
I'm most keen on ANDALEEP and TENERIFE SUNSHINE
ANDALEEP is a Course and Distance runner up off a mark of 83 in a hot race recently, drops in Class but fine here and on the AW and really should be very competitive in this company and with luck in running has no excuses.
TENERIFE SUNSHINE has a Course and Distance win off a mark of 82, very solid in this company generally and was highly tried and not disgraced on penultimate run, this though is absolutely it's right level and a mark of 81 really gives it no excuses with luck in running.
If you want a small side e/w bet at big odds at the bottom end of the market then I think that STATELY HOME will give you a decent run for your money. A Course winner off 77 at a mile, has looked tailor made on a number of turf runs for an intermediate trip between 10 and 12 furlongs and having been hampered early on last time out is really overpriced in my opinion.
Tips (1) Andaleep / (2) Tenerife Sunshine / (3s - if you wish) Stately Home