Haydock Park 30th December

 

I think conditions will be a great leveller here over the longer trips and at the top of the market I'd not see Apple Away who is unproven in the ground, Ballymagroarty Boy, who is a decent horse but who has clearly had training issues in the past as being particularly good value although SHIGHNESS who is in the Tracker and who has form in the ground is probably the one to beat here for Micky Hammond and Emma Smith-Chaston IF you want a win saver.

 

Harjo is an ex 3 mile P2P horse and we can be pretty sure that Lily Pinchin will ride it from the front and try to stretch them but it's another as yet unproven in heavy ground. The same Going concerns apply to Lily Glitters from the Henry Daly yard who are always dangerous at Haydock.

 

I think there is therefore real value and some actually solid form lines to suggest that those at bigger prices may outrun them.

 

MR HARP has a win back in 2020 in heavy ground at Uttoxeter off a mark of 115 and then placed off marks of 123 and 126 in similar conditions and runs off a mark of 104. GOLDEN COSMOS for Richard Newland has form in Ireland that really does suggest that this trip and underfoot conditions are optimum and its running off a declining mark and should be more competitive here and HAPPY HOLLOW for Jennie Candlish, another to always keep an eye on here, is 9lbs below it's last winning mark attained in the mud..

 

I think it's worth speculating on that trio and have the "win saver" on Shighness if you wish and maybe play a few Tricast lines for a big possible reward.

 

 

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I'll apply some similar logic here.

 

At the head of the market there are clear reasons why the likes of Conqueredallofeurope, Morning Spirit, Hold That Thought, Good Boy Bobby, Jimmy The Digger, Engarde and Danilo D'Airy would have very solid claims on Soft Going. They all have ability and whilst some are unproven beyond 3 miles and some prefer Softer going, I frankly can't see any of them being "bottomed out for the season" once they show any signs of distress and I think it's one of those races where we'll see a host pulled up as they turn in and hit the stamina wall and saved for another more likely day.

 

I think therefore there is value in some proven mudlarks and plodders who can stay on down the straight and win a nice prize here.

 

I like Sams Adventure and fear it but despite the Course win a recent wind op is a niggle in such conditions. It will be my reserve in case either SAMUEL JACKSON or NICEANDEASY don't' run. I think both are suited by conditions and could be well backed once the penny drops so try and get on early if you can. Both have little weight to carry off competitive marks and clear evidence that if they can get in to a rhythm they can get the trip in the mud.