Hamilton 7.17

 

The heat is less intense further north and there is a significant chance of rain early morning before breakfast and that and watering should ensure it's genuinely Good with some Firm but no sting in the ground. It's a competitive Class 2 but some will find it less competitive and less intense than some of the recent very big field races they have been in.

 

Shazzy Jazzy a recent Course and Distance winner is upped 3lbs and in form and the one to beat but although an improver lacks the depth of quality and experience of some of the others and for that reason I'm happy to take it on. Be Proud for Jim Goldie is very consistent but may be one that is better at shorter and less demanding tracks than this and therefore opposable at the price. We tipped Gulliver last time when an also ran at Ascot, this will be easier and it's on a nice mark, not lightly discounted but just failed to make my final two, so it will be reserve if we have a non runner.

 

Mr Lupton isn't the horse it was, pops up though from time to time and rather spoilt it's handicap mark with a couple of wins in past 12 months off already high marks, it WILL find a level it can win off again I think at some point this season but not quite today by my reckoning but a danger as always. At bigger odds I think Swiss Ace could outrun it's odds considerably, the drop in trip is a plus, the recent inexplicable rise in the handicap mark (after saddle slipped) is a bit of a brain teaser. If you wanted a small shrapnel bet feel free.

 

The pair I'm most confident about though are TIPPERARY TIGER and MUSIC SOCIETY. Tipperary Tiger is a Course winner off a mark of 80, and has won at Leicester over a furlong further up a similar stiff climb so should be doing all its best work late on. I don't think the rise to a mark of 84 for the in form Burke yard is prohibitive and it will be disappointing if it doesn't go very close in this.

 

MUSIC SOCIETY was runner up in this race last year off a mark of 82, gets in a pound lighter here off 81, almost certainly this will be one of the target races mapped out for the horse and again, I can't find and won't make any excuses if its not bang in contention.