Hamilton - Tuesday 16th August

 

The key here is always proven stamina up a very steep climb with Going usually on the softer side of that advertised.

 

At the head of the market are 2 very unexposed Newmarket raiders, Wilking for William Haggas is very unexposed and also not particularly proven with cut in the ground, Giam De Vega for Roger Varian makes handicap debut and also falls in to the "could be anything" category. It's a perpetual struggle in this type of race working out the unexposed types from the more proven exposed types and the value certainly lies with the latter today.

 

Empirestateofmind is in good form over a Mile, wins off marks of 83 and 87, now off a mark of 92, is one who won't mind more rain and if getting the extra furlong, and you have to point out this is a very stiff 9 furlongs probably similar to 10 furlongs at some tracks has to be a real danger. There is a stamina niggle though. Yasser was a nice 10/1 winner for us last time when the market thought it was too high in the handicap, we didn't then and got a very nice payout. Its been in good form raising its mark from 52 to 71, but on this occasion and in a deeper race I do think 75 is a ceiling it may not quite breach today.

 

Highwaygrey is a Class 3 winner for Tim Easterby off a mark of 75, it gets the trip so will be a danger off a mark of 79 but may not want too much more rain and looks a bit exposed off that mark but will be a real danger. I leave it out reluctantly. Crownthorpe returned to some kind of form off a sliping mark for Richard Fahey last time out in a Class 4 race off a mark of 72, gets a 3 lbs penalty and one I think is better at an easier mile than a tough 9 furlongs.We tipped HARSWELL DUKE here in the Sky Sunday Meeting in early May when it finished a decent 3rd. It's been kept well away from the Good to Firm Going so may just need this off a 66 day break as I'm not sure if it might be a turf gallop short. With a run it would have been a tip so if you wanted a quid each way on something it's the obvious danger for me to my 2 selections. Tilsitt has wins off 77 and 79 and is upped in Class and could outrun nice odds.

 

My speculative pair against the field though in an open race are HORTZADOR and WHERES JEFF

 

HORTZADOR has a last win mark of 91 and runs off 87 here. Its comfort zone is in that 90-91 range and it's run in some tough handicaps off too high marks but is now really coming back in to  range it can do some damage off and this is a slightly easier contest than of ate for it. It's OK on Good and softer and will welcome an easing of the ground and at the prices and with O'Meara and Tudhop teaming up looks very good enhanced each way value.

 

WHERES JEFF is a Course and Distance winner running with confidence and upped in grade. The Easterby's aren't afraid to fly a kite into stronger waters and this one looks to be in very good nick. It just got the edge over HARSWELL DUKE.

 

TRACKER - Hortzador (shrapnel - Wheres Jeff) (reserve Harswell Duke @ 12/1) 

 

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NORTHERN - Hamilton 5.20 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 12 run - Going Good  (some early showers possible)

 

A fair few of these are into uncharted stamina testing territory.

 

Haven Lady is a strong favourite and at about 3/1 I wouldn't put anyone off a win saver bet. Its won over the Course at further (1 mile 5 furlongs) and over an easier 1 mile 4 furlongs at Catterick. Its up to a mark of 57 and my only niggle would be if there is significantly more rain. I think if the Going is clearly Good, come close to the off and you can get 3/1 it might be worth that win saver bet. (

 

Ralphy Boy Two went close over 11 furlongs here last time and has a good chance although no each way value and niggles about that extra furlong too , I'm just not convinced about this trip for Cabellero for Keith Dalgleish, Lochnaver too may be stretched in the final furlong and prefer a firmer surface, CAVENDISH is an unexposed and inconsistent runner from the Johnston yard and that should sound alarm bells for anything you back against it. I think an each way shrapnel bet is the wisest move. 

 

Taxmenifyoucan disappointed when tipped last time it gets 3 miles over Jumps, clearly stays but this may be on the short side for it and it's best chance would be off a suicidal early pace where the field falls apart up the climb, it has "back in running" all over it if it went 100 plus out of the screen but you feel the pace is too hot...Pasha Boy of those at much bigger prices has a Spring profile but with the Yard in excellent form may be the best of the really long end of prices.

 

The one I really like the most though is MILLIE THE MINX. It seemingly has been affected confidence wise by a Hurdle fall and may only now be in a better mental state and regaining form. Its won over Course and Distance and placed over a furlong further, the win was off a mark of 49 and the place off a mark of 54, the mark has come down below 50 again to 49 and it's jumped off the page for that evry reason.