Friday 29th March
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
There are some very competitive races today and the decision to turn a lot of the Conditions Races in to Handicaps should make for some very competitive action and also possibly and hopefully some surprise results.
I stay well clear of Sprints at Lingfield where there can be so much scrummaging and at Newcastle, certainly races over 5-7 furlongs can be full of hard luck stories with horses basically barricaded in behind a wall of front runners who can fade late on down the 1 mile straight.
I prefer the longer Distance Races and we have a 2 mile Handicap at both Tracks and a 10 furlong handicap at Newcastle.
I do think that there is a significant Course experience advantage at Newcastle in particular. Lingfield, Chelmsford, Southwell and Wolverhampton all have relatively short finishing straights and tight turns, Kempton is right handed, at Newcastle you have the mile straight and a pretty sweeping bend on the Round Course in to the home straight and a longer run in. It's also the case that not that many races relative to other Tracks are held at Newcastle, the meetings tend to be under lIghts and there are no lights on the Round Course back straight , so most meetings only the first race is a trip beyond a mile.
I am suggesting a half point each way, main tip and two shrapnel e/wtips on all 3 races, so a total stake of 2 points per race - 6 points in total and a couple of other "pointers"...
NEWCASTLE 1.53 - Handicap Class 2 - 2 miles 1/2 furlong - 13 run - Standard
The main tip here is VAGUELY ROYAL who is a Course winner at 12 furlongs, showed stamina last time and who looks a very unexposed and improving progressive 4 year old for John Gosden. A fair few have decent Course credentials but I most like DUTY OF CARE who has been trying different tactics for shrewd connections , running prominently on one occasion and off the pace on another and the booking of David Egan suggests to me that the horse will have a master tactician and show some definite improvement. CITIZEN GENERAL is preferred to the likes of Prydwen, Rainbow Dreamer, Sir Chauvelin for the final selection, it has Course winning form, has won at the trip and despite a 7lbs penalty looks like an improving horse with plenty of potential still untapped.
Tips (1) Vaguely Royal / (2s) Duty Of Care / (3s) Citizen General
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NEWCASTLE 4.10 - Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile 2 furlongs - 14 run - Standard
I can't ignore the obvious and that is PENZANCE for Mick Appleby; a Course and Distance winner who has improved with each run and who seems to do just enough and most like stable horses as tough as teak. SIR BUSKER on the other hand is an exposed type who is a Course winner and a winner elsewhere at the trip, he has placed 2nd and 3rd in recent Course and Distance runs and is very consistent here and one who definitely deserves to win a big race like this. BLANCHLAND has Course wins at a mile and at a mile and a half, this intermediate trip looks ideal and the booking of Rossa Ryan certainly won't harm its chances.
A sporting £1 e/w is also a suggestion for locally trained Onesmoothoperator @ 28/1 who will need a very fast pace but if he gets it and the race opens for a closer, this one could fly home late at big Odds.
Tips (1) Penzance / (2s) Sir Busker / (3s) Blanchland
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LINGFIELD 3.15 Handicap - Class 3 - 2 miles - 14 run - Standard
I am quite keen to take on the top end of the market here and most like RED FLYER, admittedly more exposed than some in the field but a solid and consistent yardstick over Course and Distance who should be very competitive off today's mark. BARENBEIM was an eyecatcher over course and distance last time and may well be primed to the minute by shrewd connections. FIRST EMPEROR is a Course and distance winner who has slowly dropped to a very attractive mark, whether that is a plan for today, ot just a coincidence, I couldn;t say but one I expect to be in the first 3 here.
At bigger Odds for that £1 e/w shrapnel is Diamond Bay @ 22/1 , another who has Course and Distance winning form, was genuinely unlucky in running last time here and another who may have been primed for this race.
Tips (1) Red Flyer / (2s) Barenbeim / (3s) First Emperor
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One other little ditty and the NAP of the day in the other races would be POLLING DAY in the 2.05 at Lingfield, this one clearly has an engine and has been running a bit too freely, the addition of a hood at this stage is may be overdue but significant nonetheless - so each way shrapnel punt suggested.
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