Friday 17th December

 

A very competitive race and lots to consider and this is one of those Fixtures where you just know there are a few "pre Christmas plot horses" hiding some form and that type of race where you can be wise after the event.

 

I think the favourite THAT OLE CHESTNUT who has been placed 3 times over shorter and who steps up in trip IS the one they all have to beat and I'll have a small e/w saver to cover that off and invest in a couple I fancy a lot more to run big races at bigger odds with plenty of enhanced placed options with the big field.

 

Irish Sovereign a 50/1 winner last time in first time blinkers is a clear danger as are a host of others. Ajays Ways for Fergal OB tries a tongue tie for the first time and that's worth noting; Bardd returns to Hurdles where it has regularly placed, Blended Stealth for Twiston-Davies makes handicap debut and could be anything and wouldn't have to be out of the ordinary lets be honest to figure here either. Click And Collect for Jennie Candlish is one from a yard that likes a flutter here but hard to know best trip and one who I think could be in the "plot" category.

 

Jessie Lightfoot has placed here before, is very lightly raced and therefore unexposed and a danger on that basis, Skinflint may have been off for 2 years but from a yard that likes a tilt at the ring with a horse like this so watch any money coming in, The Denholm Bandit has been off for 8 months and had a wind op and may be worth Tracking after this run for a yard who'll no doubt place him somewhere to win at some point but Ijust don't sense that may be today. Vinnies Getaway won at 3 miles for Olly Murphy and drops in trip for a new yard and is another with a squeak.

 

If you wanted a fun bet right amongst the very big prices then DAN GUN won off marks of 85 and 92 for Fergal and off 83 and 92 for Skelton before that, so off a mark of 88 with a decent 7lbs Claimer holds some interest, with all due respect to Simin though he isn't Dan or Fergal but the horse may just be ready to out-run those Odds here. Similarly I think HARRY THE NORSEMAN blinkered for the first time and upped in trip for Paul Webber may start to fulfil some expectations at this trip and with the new aids. Those are just for the shrapnel players though.

 

My pair against the field and the favourite if you want the saver bet are DR OAKLEY who runs for Henry Oliver and with a win at Wincanton in 2020 off a mark of 86 is on a decent enough mark off 90 here, has had a quiet run back and it's one of those Yards I just have a hunch about keeping one back, we'll see. Similar thoughts about SHANROE TIC TEC but more from a form angle. It's top weight but for a reason and has moved to Grace Harris who has already shown she can get a tune out of the right horses, it's been placed enough times off higher and similar marks to make me think it has a good chance here, placed in a range from 98 to 104 and runs here off a mark of 98 with an excellent 3lbs Claimer.

 

TRACKERS - Dr Oakley + Shanroe Tic Tec (shrapnel Dan Gun @ 50/1  + Harry The Norseman @ 33/1  - if you want / e/w saver on That Old Chestnut @ 5/1)

 

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A similar kind and Class of race.

 

Jeremy Scott again provides the favourite though I am slightly less confident about Wavering Down than That Old Chestnut but the Trainer and horses form at shorter means I will suggest an each way saver on Wavering Dawn.

 

Barrakhov comes off a 270 day break for Fegal and could frankly be anything Hurricane Dylan is on a nice mark, by no means past it at 10 but I would hope something a bit more progressive might beat it with younger legs. Gumbo Flyer for Paul Webber didn't take to fences last time, returns to Hurdles here and would have place chances ; Kenyan Cowboy won a race over shorter at Chepstow off a mark of 95 but the trip here is a niggle; King orry was 6th last time in a race at Exeter we'll come back too and is another who could improve and sneak a place. Let Me Entertain you for michael Scudamore was a runner up over 3 miles at Huntingdon last time and has clear chances as does Presentedwithwings who is another about whom I have stamina concerns.

 

At bigger odds a couple more for the shrapnel bettors in LOUGHERMORE another for Simon Waugh coincidentally who has won off a mark of 105 at Wetherby and placed over 3 miles at Ayr off 111 and looks well handicapped off a mark of 105 with a 7lbs Claimer up here and also LANSPARK for the Tizzards and one who could attract money I think, its won over 3 miles off a mark of 95 at Taunton but flopped over chase fences and returns to Hurdles and may have scope still over the smaller fences.

 

My main money though will be on DORRANA - that has had 2 runs the last being in the Exeter race where King Orry came th, DORRANA was 4th that day having finished 6th on seasonal debut, it's coming to hand fitness wise and fine at the trip and off a nice mark and I'll be disappointed if it's not in the first 4-5 hom here. Similarly I think KAZONTHERAZZ is another ready to strike for the in form Keighley yard, a runner up over shorter it's got a pedigree that suggests 3 miles may be the best trip and  the intermediate trip here looks ideal.

 

TRACKER - Dorrana + Kazontherazz (shrapnel on Loughermore @ 22/1 + Lanspark @ 12/1  if you want and e/w saver on Wavering Down @ 9/2)