Doncaster 3.05
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
A very positive day yesterday with GA Law given an excellent ride that optimised the horses stamina reserves to the full to win at an SP of 8/1 at Cheltenham and then an outstanding pace judgement ride from the front on Annual Invictus in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster, so often you see such brave rides get mugged on the line, so great to see enterprise fully rewarded.
There are Meetings at Doncaster, Fontwell and Naas today, not too much to attack in terms of handicaps or particularly competitive fields, so we'll go for just the one race at Doncaster with some speculative but logical options based on deep race analysis.
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NORTHERN - Doncaster 3.05 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 3 miles 1/2 furlong - Good - 14 run
At the top end of the market we have unexposed types like Jaytee, Pyffo and Hashtag Boum, the latter would seem a logical win saver if you want one at around 7/2 but I think there is value elsewhere.
Skelton runs a so far poor performing horse in Mahler Moon who is upped in trip but I want to see more before investing on this occasion. Aazza has potential and is a type who could fire in the near future so I have added it to the TRACKER but not investing in it today.
There are 4 of the 14 who really caught my eye and in order of preference they are PARICOLOR from the Pipe yard who is well handicapped despite top weight and who has been noted as one who is running in to form and a sporting each way punt here. TIM PAT won a race at this meeting on the Saturday last year off a mark 14lbs higher than today, a reduced mark and the much better ground should see it running much better than of late.
I always think the Mullholland horses prefer this better ground and CROSSING THE BAR who is in the tracker courtesy of wins off 112 and 114 at this sort of trip on this sort of ground last season gets optimum conditions again off a win mark of 114 and with a good 5lbs claimer. Its interesting that stable mate Tango Boy has his first hurdle run in 4 years off a mark 10lbs lower than his last run over hurdles, Sam Twiston-Davies runs and I didn't discount it lightly but of the Mulhollan pair I do prefer Crossing The Bridge and I think the claim on that one is significant!. I'll have Tango Boy as the notional reserve and if you want a quid each way saver then feel free.
Tips (1) Paricolor / (2) Tim Pat / (3) Crossing The Bridge (see notes re 12 Tango Boy)