Chester Wednesday 4th May

 

We all know about the unique nature of this Course, the perceived and often validated low draw bias and the way the market follows the draw as much as the form but this race can and often does throw up high drawn bigger priced horses who can pick up nice place money and occasionally win.

 

That happened last year where the winner was drawn in 3 but the placed horses at nice each way prices were all drawn higher.

 

The winner last year was BROKEN SPEAR , he's already had 4 runs so arrives rock hard fit and thrives with racing. He runs off a pound lower, drawn in Stall 5 and with some rain about, that would be a bonus for him and with his proven adaptability at the track, I think he's a cracking each way bet.

 

The most likely winner for me is PAWS FOR THOUGHT who has joined the McCain yard from the Dascombe yard (two massively influential yards here) and with a Course win off 87 and an earlier Course and Distance win off 75 and drawn in stall 6, I think McCain will have him trained to the minute.

 

I can find reasons to back almost everything else and reasons not too, you really are a slave to fortune here but I cant resist a nibble too on ROUNDHAY PARK who also has excellent Course form, a winner off 82 and runner up of 79, its had a run, runs off 84 and the market has over-reacted and ignored the Course credentials as its drawn 12. I am taken in by the price.

 

For those who want to play a really big price on the exchanges with £2 win and place where you might get double the SP odds....don't totally rule out GOMETRA GINTY its drawn 9 and VERY inconsistent but take a look at its past form, on a few occasions it has absolutely pinged the stalls and run off in to the distance and not been caught, best on tight speedy tracks this is just the type to take  flyer and run from the front. Worth a small investment if you can get silly prices matched before the stalls open on the exchanges.

 

 

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In the CHESHIRE OAKS at 2.40 I think the each way value is with THOUGHTS OF JUNE for AP O'Brien and Ryan Moore trying to beat O'Brien Junior who trains the strong favourite. The only other one to consider at a price may have been Moon De Vega but a lot of the value on that one has gone as it must have been put up by one of those Bookie based Tipsters?.