Catterick 4.50

 

The Draw here can blindside you a little and whilst Low has an advantage enough races are won these days by horses drawn higher that the old bias is not as strong as it used to be.

 

There are Class 6 horses and tend to both win in turn and not to run up sudden sequences. For that reason I don't think there is any real value in the top few in the market, Dandys Gold with a 5lbs penalty, Liberty breeze with a 3lbs penalty, Viva Voce who may prefer a bit more cut in the turf and better anyway on the AW and Safran who is very inconsistent and whose price is more to do with the Trainers reputation are all big dangers but collectively at prices likely to be 5/1 or less, none of them can be backed to win with confidence, so we'll look for each way value.

 

Langton World impressed when winning last time, gets a 6lbs penalty and this 3 year old is in a lot deeper I think here. I was left with a short list of 4 horses at decent prices.

 

MR STRUTTER is the one I have most confidence in, a Course and Distance winner, gets the inside draw and if he can break on terms that will be a positive. It runs well in the low 60's so 62 is a decent mark although the win mark most recently was 59. FINAL FRONTIER is a much bigger price but it strokes me that it's a horse slowly running into a bit of form. It has steadily regressed with age but every horse has a level and it was good enough to win off a mark of 58 last August and turns up here today off a mark of 56 and is narrowly preferred to a couple of others.

 

How Bizarre was caught on the line here last time by Round The Island (Tracker horse of ours), both should go close again but with Round The Island up just a pound but drawn in 10 and How Bizarre off levels and drawn in stall 2, I frankly can't split them. They will be big dangers to all, including the selections however and very reluctantly left out.