Catterick 1.50

 

On Firmish Going here a low Rail Draw can be a big advantage.

 

If you break on terms and grab a rail you dictate the pace round the left hand turn into a short straight and a horse getting the fractions right can often win unchallenged. Drawn wider you either have to make a very fast start, or you can spend the whole race off the bridle trying to make up ground. If you miss the start from the middle berths you're simply a hostage to fortune and luck in running.

 

At the head of the market Redzone and Lincoln Gamble have favourites chances but not particularly kind draws I think and Lincoln Gamble may be a better 7 furlong horse anyway.

 

A couple who may need tracking as they are on seasonal debut but very nice marks are Jungle Inthebungle and The Grey Bay and although that one is drawn 1, they would possibly have wanted that prime pitch after a few runs and not first time up.

 

The pair who catch my eye drawn low in Stalls 2 and 3 who have both had 3 disappointing runs so far but who look to be on very good marks as a result with absolutely no excuses either in terms of form on the ground or the Course are INDIAN PURSUIT and SFUMATO.

 

INDIAN PURSUIT is best at 5 furlongs but gets and has won at 6 furlongs, if breaking on terms should be able to use the 5 furlong speed and provided they get fractions right could be difficult to pass. SFUMATO in Stall 3 has a Course and Distance win in September 2019, off a mark of 63 and tellingly drawn 1 that day on Good to Firm, a mark of 55 here should have the connections pretty bullish you'd suspect.

 

Draw is key, that's my logic, hopefully correct.