Carlisle Thursday 7th September

 

Carlisle as many of you will already know has one of the toughest finishing climbs of any UK racecourse. It's a good 4 furlongs from the bottom of the hill from the 5-6 furlong chute where they run pretty much on the level initially and the Round Course where they level out after running downhill in the longer distance races.

 

A lot of the locally trained runners that are used to the very flat Musselburgh and the long flat straight at Ayr can struggle here and so it's always important to note form at some of the uphill finish other Northern Tracks like Pontefract and Beverley.

 

 

With the Stalls on the inside tonight the lower Drawn horses would normally be expected to have an advantage on Good to Firm Going.

 

At the top end of the market, Dream Deal is in form and an obvious danger, So Sing has a form chance but not a great draw, Nightout is on a career low mark and Rainbow Rain is in decent form and both of these were strongly considered. 

 

There are a couple at big odds that I think are well worth a small investment. SECRET EQUITY has been off for 222 days but runs well fresh and after a break of 248 days last year started with a place and a win. it gets a berth in Stall 2 and that past proven fresh form suggests a small £1 e/w type cover bet may be a decent backstop. I'm keen to have a shrapnel e/w bet on SHARRABANG this one is 33/1 plus in the early markets but has decent form here, form at the trip and runs off a nice handicap mark on preferred Good to Firm Going. It's drawn in Stall 6 and not hard to visualise it significantly outrunning the early odds.

 

My favoured pair though are ONE OF OUR OWN a progressive 3 year old with form at the trip and still on a nice mark and hopefully a prime drawn in Stall 4 and SOUTH DAKOTA SIOUX who won off a mark of 60 earlier in the season and who has then struggled with a penalty, it has won on Good to Firm and no complaints about a draw in Stall 7 if he is good enough and with a decent 3lbs Claimer taking his Claim off a mark of 62 is weighted in reality a pound below that last winning mark.

 

 

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Shanaz is the favourite based on a good runner to be runner up here last week and it'll be the one to beat but the price is restrictive even for a win bet. Elettaria won at the course over 7 furlongs last time and wasn't stopping at the line and will be a serious danger.

 

A lot of the remainder have that Ayr and Musselburgh form I referred to earlier.

 

ROYAL PROSPECT though looks a solid each way punt, plenty of Course and Distance form and a last winning mark of 57, fine on Good to Firm and was noted running a better race on the AW last time when a shade unlucky. I think it'll enjoy coming back here and I'll be disappointed if it doesn't win to be frank.

 

At bigger prices I think this Course will be a far better fit than for many for JEWEL OF KABEIR who drops back to a mile runs off a m=nice mark and one who I anticipate will stay on late up the hill and GRACELANDS GIRL who showed real promise last season as a 3 year old and it's quite incredible watching those first few races back that she hasn't yet won a race. She was lumbered with probably too high a mark but she gets into a Class 6 here off top weight and she's one to track and follow as at some point soon she'll find her level and could be the sort to run up a sequence.