Carlisle Thursday 26th October
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
NORTHERN - Carlisle 2.45 Handicap Chase - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 15 run - Good to Soft
A few light showers and I think this will ride softer than advertised but by no means deep mud.
At the top end of the market I think that both Readysteadybeau and Jipcot, like a fair few of these, might on balance of form need the run. It's a steep and unforgiving climb to the finish here and if a horse is 95% fit it will be found out and I don't think any Trainer will want to bottom a horse out at this stage of the season.
Cardamon Hill is interesting on some Irish form and has had a couple of sighters in the UK and may be ready to deliver so wasn't lightly overlooked, Captain Quint has won fresh and this may now be it's best trip so another one who is rated a danger, Son Of The Somme is another who has run fresh but a 223 day break suggests that at this particular track he may just be found out in the final stages.
I'm keen on a few who I know will be race fit, MULBERRY HILL comes from the Fergal O'Brien yard and ran out when in contention at Uttoxeter last time, a prior run indicated similar levels of promise and I think the long trip here may be rewarded as it'll be as fit as anything and fitter than most.
At bigger prices, BREAKING THE ICE has had 2 runs and should be primed now, conditions suit and off a mark of 105, I can't find any reason why this one can't be in the money at least. MISTER BELLS will come on considerably for a recent spin based on past form, a right handed track suits and it has wins in soft off marks of 104 and 105 so band there possibly in contention off a mark of 106 and one that looks overpriced to me.
Tips (1) Mulberry Hill / (2s) Breaking The Ice / (3s) Mister Bells
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NORTHERN - Carlisle 5.05 Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 furlongs - Class 5 - Good to Soft - 20 run
At the top of the market we have ZWICKY who is upped just 3 lbs for a recent win at Sedgefield and I think one who can follow up here using race fitness and confidence and around 6/1 the field looks solid each way value to enhanced places.
Copper Cove for Jonjo could be anything but may need the run, Secret Secret is up 6lbs for a Cartmel win for Cartmel specialist Jimmy Moffatt and I'm not sure it will be as effective here, Rajjamataz is from the Newland yard and similar profile to Jonjo's runner with untapped potential, Solway Molly is in form but i think better of the flatter tracks like Perth and Ayr. At a big price one who did catch the eye and just missed an investment was CALL ME HARRY, he'll be a handy reserve if we have a non runner but I'm not as convinced about this track suiting as with a few others. Fairland and Kapamazov are a pair I'll keep a close eye on, probably both will need the run but both look decent prospects for the coming months.
I think that BOUNCING BOBBY is the most likely to follow ZWICKY home here, a Course and Distance winner of this race last year off a mark of 77, is effectively 8 pounds higher off a mark of 88 but has a 3lbs claim. It won very impressively last year and has an almost identical preparation running on the Flat and I'm sure it'll be tuned up off a similar 8 week break as last year.
At bigger Odds and with 20 runners and enhanced places both EUCHAN FALLS who won off marks of 83 and 85 and impressed a lot last year and who has had a run and running off a mark of 90, and BLENDED STEALTH who had some solid form in the mid 90's mark range with Nigel Twiston-Davies and now off a mark of 84 and race for for the capable lizzie Quinlan, look the sort to outrun Odds in this competitive race.
Tips (1) Zwicky / (2) Bouncing Bobby / (3s) Euchan Falls / (4s) Blended Stealth