Carlisle Sunday 12th December

 

A competitive race on Good to Soft going with some rain about.

 

Bass Rock is the favourite, a Course winner, Ryan Mania presumably picks it despite other options and will be tough to beat but at the price we'll try to take it on although I'd say a Tricast cert and win saver IF you want to play either option.

 

I'm keen at around 5/1 on an each way punt on SMALL PRESENT, Sue Smith horses are in good form, this horse was very progressive last season seeing wins take a mark from 117 up to 129, it's had a couple of runs and I think now fully tuned up can resume progression off a mrk of 133.

 

Of the remainder, Captain Zebo won this from the front last season and can be competitive again off top weight, Flight Deck drops back in Grade having done up a Class last time and is a big danger although he does tend to run best fresh and then form can recede and that's a niggle. Saint Dalina was entered at Cheltenham on Friday, didn't run and comes here but is off a 267 day break and above last win mark so may just benefit from this today. Teescomponents Lad is another with strong claims and is very consistent with form figures of 2221 but a 5lbs hike may just take the edge of its chances and The Worlds End too has a squeak on old form but went Hunter Chasing last season and this may be a step back to that sphere.

 

I can't fancy either Wowsham nor HommeD'Un Soir on these terms and that brings us to PERFECT MAN.

 

Strongly fancied by us all here at the abandoned meeting a few weeks ago, it then had a run over an wholly inadequate trip and now back at best trip here. It would seem that the horse was ready for a run, they will have got a really good blow into it as a result so should now be cherry ripe fit. A Distance winner and last win mark was 129, looks very well treated at nice odds again here off a mark of 120 with a 3lbs Claimer who knows the horse. Hopefully it stays on up the hill and nicks a place at least!

 

 

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Another competitive heat and again one we tipped last time out catches the eye.

 

NAKADAM was just swinging in to contention when very unlucky to be brought down last time out over 4 miles. This trip is possibly minimum in terms of it's effective range but twice up the steepest climb in UK racing and a likely generous pace should play to stamina  strengths in the final stages. A Course and Distance winner very quietly but well fancied in a very competitive field.

 

Dee Star was placed last time out, tries new headgear and like most of them has a solid chance. Dequail is very inexperienced over fences as a 5 year old but proven stayer and could be a nice prospect in the middle grades (C4 / C3 in time) to follow.  Glittering Love wears first time blinkers, best at slightly shorter so far but still plenty of scope too in this one for Nicky Richards. Speak Of The Devil for the always dangerous Lucinda Russell yard adds to the mix and is eased in Grade but I just feel the handicapper has its measure at the moment, The Composeur fell last time out and not for the first time and I think you'd need to see a solid if unspectacular round of jumping from this one before any financial investment but another horse with time and scope still to play it's cards at some point.

 

Tommie Beau is the worthy favourite but this is a very different track to the likes of Fakenham and Fontwell where it has been winning and I narrowly left out and a shade reluctant to do so LEX TALLONIS who would be in my Tricast perm. It's fit and has good Course form but narrowly missed out to another Sue Smith horse in LOUGH DERG FARMER, who won the 4 miler that Nakadam fell in last time but a horse still on a nice mark comparative to past exploits and with the Yard in such good form the one they all have to beat in my opinion.