Carlisle 4.45

 

It's hard to actually find a horse that's rock solid on Heavy ground and at the trip here and you can find some sort of chink in all of them.

 

Court At Slip is in the Tracker and has won the last twice, blinkers are added but the Heavy Going is a real concern. Elleon has been runner up 5 times in its last 6 races and gets Cheek-Pieces today but again the Going is a significant concern. Return Fire is competitive at the trip and off a nice mark but again I'm not convinced it is at its best on deep ground. Bretney was rejuvenated by Blinkers last time and if they work again would be a tough nut to crack and it has proven stamna over much further that may help it cover for being another one with no Heavy ground form. Creative Control is definitely more at home both on better ground but most significantly very flat and easy 3 miles like at Musselburgh and Catterick, so the hill and climbs here are a major concern. Duke Of Deception is another whose best is at Musselburgh which is like chalk and cheese to Carlisle with its very steep climb to the line.

 

Of course the Going may not be as heavy as advertised which would totally negate all of the above but we have to believe that it is and rainfall levels and readings suggest it is.

 

Therefore I will invest in ONESTEPATATIME who is proven over 3 miles and 3 furlongs and likes tougher tracks and stamina tests and if you want a 2nd poke at a 10 runner race then the best Irish form of WESTY FOX is in Heavy and although it's not often run at this trip its often suggested that it won't be a problem and the heavy ground form is just about the best in the race.