Carlisle 4.43

 

An interesting field and these horses will have qualified for this over a considerable period of time. In doing so many will have become exposed and on inflated Handicap marks, so I always like to look for value on the day, as opposed to entirely focusing on the form that got the horse into the race.

 

It's a classic example really and hopefully the "contrarian logic" pays off.

 

At the top end of the market Powerful Position has gone 1-UR-F-1-1-1 and has risen from a mark of 83 and a last win mark of 100 and runs off 110 today. Magna Sam has won its last 2 races off marks of 109 and 115 without being particularly impressive and goes up to 122 today. You Don't Know has run up a sequence of 2-1-1-2- and gone up from a mark of 95 to a last winning mark of 105 and runs off a mark of 110 today. How well handicapped therefore are any of these now?. We'll find out later.

 

Delving a little deeper we have No Cruise Yet from in in form England yard, recent form is 1-2-2-3-1 starting on a mark of 88 and a last winning mark of 97 and running off 102 here, then from another in-form yard (Nick Alexander) comes Chanting Hill who is up 4lbs for a win last time out. I actually fear those pair more than the 3 at the head of the market but not enough to have a punt on a couple at bigger Odds.

 

KAPHUMOUR is ridden by Thomas Wilmott who rode the field to sleep from the front on Romeo Brown for this yard yesterday. Kamphour is a similar type whose best form is when running prominently and whose best form is on drying and Good ground. He is 14lbs above his last winning mark but that looks like a fair mark based on that win when he was very unexposed. I think conditions have come right for him here.

 

SPEAK OF THE DEVIL for Lucinda Russell is a bit more speculative but all its best form is on Good ground and it hasn't been over-exerted on winter Going. It has won off marks of 105 and 107 so a mark today in optimum conditions of 110 looks a nice one to me and I expect it to outrun its Odds.