Carlisle - Monday 20th March
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
NORTHERN - Carlisle 3.15 Handicap Chase - Class 3 - 3 miles and 1/2 furlong - 11 run - Good to Soft
A decent and competitive race where I feel proven stamina on this toughest of tough climbs will be a key factor
Post Chase heads the market with form figures of 123211 over Hurdles and Fences but this is a far tougher ask than wins at the much easier Huntingdon and Hereford off a penalty. Tile Tapper is 2-2-4 but may now be in the grip of the handicapper. Lord Roco is 2-2-2 but off an increased mark and I'm not sure this climb to the line will play to its strengths.
Engarde last won off a mark of 128 at Haydock in December 2021 beating Remastered no less and rates a massive danger if recapturing that form but after a second wind operation we have to take health on trust. Destiny Is All is another progressive type for Lucinda Russell with form of 11-213 but once again it hasn't encountered a track quite as tough as this. Dof Of War is one I've added to the TRACKER as it was progressive before an extended break and after a recent return may still need a run or two to attain the full fitness you need here.
My pair against the field are MORNING SPIRIT, a Course and Distance winner in similar conditions in November off a mark of 127, returns off 131 after a couple of less successful run but that proven Course and Distance form ticks boxes many others cant. WOWSHAM is another with Course and Distance form at the back end of 2021 when runner up off a mark of 129, runs off 131 here and the addition of cheek-pieces would see to be a positive on past evidence.
Tips - (1) Morning Spirit / (2) Wowsham
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Carlisle 4.25 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles 1 furlong - 11 run - Good to Soft
I think around 3/1 is a cracking price for Rebecca Menzies PIAFF BUBBLES and value on that basis for a win bet.
Basford is a perennial runner up and I'm not sure about the step up in trip here, Doireann has some form but at far flatter and easier tracks, Our Sam was a runner up off 98 at Hexham in September and one of the more likely ones but may just need this run. Ribeye just gets 3 miles and was all out last time and had a tough race, the increased mark does him no favours. One Fer mamma has decent Chase and Hurdle form off a mark around 100 but has moved to a new Yard and may not prefer the drying ground.
Right out of "left field" one really struck me IF it's fit enough after a recent return on one piece of past form. ELUSIVE RED has the kind of profile you'd normally immediately skip past and whilst that may be the case here, a runner up effort over this sort of trip at Hexham off a basement mark of 79 really caught my eye in a race where some that it beat that day have subsequently gone out and won or placed off better marks. I'm happy to take a speculative punt at big odds, you should stake accordingly, but very little stands out aside from the favourite
Tips (1) Piaff Bubbles / (2) Elusive Red
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