Carlisle - Monday 17th May
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
CARLISLE 2.45 - Class 4 Handicap - 7 furlongs 173 yards ( 1 mile to you and me) - 15 Run - Good to Soft (rain)
At the head of the market at a very short price is Jump the Gun who should be winning this but worth taking on in the conditions if the rain comes. The 2nd favourite is Hundred Isles who is not really proven on soft and who may be vulnerable.
I identified 2 at bigger prices with proven stamina and soft ground form and nice marks and a third who has impressed on Heavy at 7 furlongs.
SOARING STAR is the 7 furlong heavy ground winner for Kevin Ryan off a mark of 74, runs off 77 here. The niggle is the extra furlong and the hill and but for that would have seen a financial investment, if either Tracker didn't run I'd have no qualms about him being worth an investment as the 3 were clearly ahead of the rest, outside of the top 2, in terms of form analysis.
HUMBERT is a big price but was runner up on Sort off a mar of 90 in 2018, struggled in this Grade off marks too high but showed glimmers of form. Comes here race fit, has what could be a nice draw in Stall 9 and off a mark of 78 with a good 3lbs Claimer has what I think is its best chance in ages.
GIVE IT SOME TEDDY is back with Tim Easterby for whom it has won at a mile off marks of 77 and 81 including on Soft. A draw in Stall 2 may not be ideal if they come Stands side but you can cut the corner off g=from there, save ground and cut across to the rain. Off 77 and having had a couple of runs, I anticipate a bolder showing and place chances at least.
TRACKERS - Humbert + Give It Some Teddy (reserve if n/r is Soaring Star)
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CARLISLE 5.00 Handicap - Class 5 - 1 mile 3 furlongs and 39 Yards - Good to Soft (rain) - 14 run
As in the earlier race the favourits are short priced, solid but not unbeatable in possibly deteriorating conditions.
Flood Defence is favourite I think based on one specific piece of form here and Seventeen O Four, on a hat trick, up 5lbs and a very different Track to encounter.
The pair I most like at decent prices are BOLLIN MARGARET, won over 12 furlongs off a mark of 67 in the past on 3rd seasonal run, this is 3rd seasonal run in 2021 and its a big price. The Going is a question mark but i'm prepared to take a chance on pedigree indicating it shouldn't be an excuse.
IDILICO ran at Doncaster on Saturday and caught the eye. I'd imagine Ian Williams has left it up North and gone over to Carlisle and if ready to run should make a bold bid. Clearly fit and ready to win.
TRACKERS - Bollin Margaret + Idilico (NR)