Boxing Day 26th December

 

A very competitive if low grade Handicap Hurdle that should offer excellent market value.

 

At the head of the market are Rockmann and Maughold Head, both hold excellent claims at around the 7/2 mark and if you want to do a small reverse F/Cast on those pair to cover the probability of form being franked, I would not put you off, but i do think there are a few offering far more value in here on likely sticky ground.

 

I've a niggle about the trip in the conditions for the dangerous Bushmill Boy, On We Go has an excellent chance on pure form but strikes me as more of a summer type and its best runs have been at the very quirky Cartmel. Get Going, Eden Mill Rockosoph and the already mentioned Maughhold Head all make their handicap debuts and could be anything and of the four it's Rockonsoph that I'd be most interested in going forwards. Calliope is another "summer ground" type who may not appreciate the conditions but is well handicapped on preferred Going. 

 

I narrowed the 18 down to 3 main selections although I wouldn't totally discount the current 50-66/1 rag of the market BUTO both due to its Trainer and his propensity to drop one in at such prices and also on some slithers of Irish form that suggest he could nick a place in these conditions.

 

I feel however that CORAL BLUE, PERFECT MAN and GINGER POINTE represent the best value in the race.

 

CORAL BLUE was an impressive winner last time, I think the confidence gained will more than match a 6lbs penalty and it will be disappointing if it's not bang in contention once again. GINGER POINTE has an 3 mile P2P background so some proven stamina, it' dropped back from an extended 2 miles 6 furlongs last time where may be peak fitness explained the way it didn't quite get that trip on the day, but the long Straight here should play to it's strengths ideally and it has a nice e/w enhanced place chance. PERFECT MAN seems out of form but has dropped to a nice mark as a result, I can't help but think it's a target race for this one and in these conditions it'll have no excuses nor get any from me.

 

TIP - CORAL BLUE / Trackers - Ginger Pointe + Perfect Man (shrapnel if you wish on Bute)

 

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This race could throw up some nice types and be on to follow and once again the top pair in the market Aire Valley Lad and Sir Apollo look very strong and I'll advocate a tactical small reverse F/Cast to cover them both off.

 

Trevelyns Corn for Micky Hammond looks a nice prospect too as does Concrete King for Neil Mulholland who comes off a 282 day break so logically may need the run. Fever Roque is one I see as a big danger too BUT it just seems that whatever the trip it seems to travel well but not find too much off the bridle. It;s a great Yard and maybe they will find the key to that at some point but I'd suggest it would have to be delivered perfectly to win given past evidence. Get Prepared from Ben Pauling on seasonal debut off 238 days is another to add to the "danger" list and all named so far will win Chases in the near future, hopefully though not today!

 

I can't quite fathom how JEAN GENIE who has by my calculation raced in 12 Handicap Chases since 2020, can suddenly qualify for a Novice Handicap Chase on it's last run and today?. It is a 20 race Maiden admittedly but has been in some good Class 3 and 4 races and has more experience of Fences and is a solid jumper, than a lot of these combined. With a few novice types that experience may prove invaluable once the pressure is on and I think the logic and price justifies an investment.

 

ESPOIR MORVIERE has Course form and Distance winning form elsewhere and has won for me before and has taken well to Fences and looks to have a solid each way chance here at a nice price. ONESTEPATATIME has a 3 mile P2P background and some solid Hurdle form and stays and jumps well and I think could thrive in a field of this size. I'm also fascinated by the fact that Tim Easterby, who runs Beat The Edge who is not without a chance, has seen enough to enter COURT AT SLIP into a Novice Chase whilst still a 5 year Old. It's a really scopey type and the Trainer has won this race before so the would appear to have seen something to justify the entry.

 

TRACKERS - Jean Genie + Espoir Morviere (shrapnel - Onestepatatime + Court At Slip)