Beverley 6.23

 

A tricky looking race and I don't automatically subscribe to the view that you have to be drawn low here as that's only fine if you make the break and get the rail into the long right hand turn into the straight. It's possible to tuck in, stay balanced and get a nice outside run in the final couple of furlongs as you climb the hill.

 

I narrowed the 14 down to a shortlist of 6 and can leave a couple at the top of the market on value as it's a type of race where value can more often than not be found.

 

Bawaader is of some interest dropped in trip from 10 furlongs to 7 and a half, but I have a view that they have overdone the drop and 9 furlongs or even the mile here would have seen the horse in a better light. I think I will need a lot of luck in running over this trip.  Christmas Night is drawn 12 but could be running into form and has a 6lbs pull for a defeat by KODIMOOR who we tipped to win here over CD back in early May at 15/2, we'll come on to Kodimoor shortly. I don't see Christmas Night quite reversing form yet.

 

Etikaal has a solid and strong win or place chance, drawn 8 for Gtant Tuer, disappointing recently but on best Turf form as runner up here in June 2019 off a mark of 55 is definitely one as I see as a big danger and very close to being a selection.

 

For Tricast purposes and if you want a reserve/shrapnel bet I do think the veteran FIRMDECISIONS is better market value, I'm purely driven on price for this one, it's not the 80+ rated horse it was, is 11 now but can still be very competitive off a mark of 50 if the cards land right.

 

My pair against the field are KODIMOOR who has a nice draw and still competitive off a mark of 50 just 4 lbs higher and will try to test these from the front quite clearly. My favoured one though is the Fahey trained ABSOLUTE DREAM who is drawn adjacent in stall 4 and I've a hunch Kodimoor will set this one up nicely and as long as they don't cut each others throats with a silly pace I think they will be the pair the others have to catch. Absolute Dream ran much better last time and was a shade unlucky trapped at a key point against the rail.