Ayr Tuesday 14th February

 

It's nice to get a bit of "soft" into the Going description here although some partos the North (especially the Western side) can look forward to some rain in the coming week.  It'll be decent ground that won't be too firm not too soft so no excuses on that front. The way to go I feel is to start looking at those horses kept away from the worst of the winter ground, it's been more "dead" than "heavy" this winter so far but things can quickly change. I've gone quite speculative on a few selections as my second choice options. A few Forecast Pointers too for those interested.

 

 

There's a few things to consider here specific to the race in terms of the jockey ability and any trends we can find about the form of these mares at the time of year we are at.

 

The one to beat is clearly Lone Star as its hard to oppose it but I can't recommend any horse at such a short price. Poppy Rose is a danger on known Irish form and a crafty small reverse forecast may not be a bad option.

 

Animore is back hurdling with confidence a bit shot jumping wise over fences but would have a squeak if quickly regaining confidence, the one that just missed out in my actual selections is Topkapi Star who is on a declining mark and not the horse it was but should certainly be competitive at this sort of level.

 

YOUR PLACE is in the Tracker System and was a runner up in this race last year off a mark of 84. It runs off 82 today with a 6lbs Claimer and has been a bit disappointing but a wind operation after the horse folded tamely last time suggests there may be genuine reasons why the horse hasn't gone on from that run in the race last year and in a race that lacks depth I think its a sporting each way shot, especially if it can run pain free.

 

At bigger Odds I was quite taken by HALCYON DREAMS, it's best Irish form with a runner up effort off a mark of 80 is interesting and although it's not really fired in the UK yet, a mark of 74 should certainly give it an opportunity to deliver something more tangible. I'm quietly confident it could be the one at the big price end to up its game. 

 

 

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Once again the top pair look pretty strong but not strong enough to tempt me in for a formal bet some if you want to play the F/Cast option on Apple Away on handicap debut with an impressive profile and Jet Legs who has been runner up last twice and particularly unlucky in running here on penultimate run.

 

The reason I can't quite tip either is the presence of HOGANVILLE. It hit a golden run when arriving from Ireland last season winning off marks of 96 up to 106 and placing off a mark of 112, its easy to think the handicapper may have its measure but on this better ground and with proven form and stamina, the top two in the market would have to run to form and perhaps their best races to match HOGANVILLE proven form. I think it's still got scope to improve from a mark of 112 and a 7lbs Claim tips the balance for me.

 

Of the remainder, Leostar who likes Kelso with wins of 110 and 115 would be a danger if translating that sort of form to Ayr, Niceandeasy is on a recovery mission from some dodgy Chase jumping but like previous race could figure if enjoying the smaller obstacles. Tomorrows Angel is in the TRACKER but out of form and this trip is a niggle so best watched and Firth Of Forth who is also in the Tracker is another best watched as with some excellent Maiden form we expected big things but its twice been PU with stiffness and signs of some physical issues. I've no doubt that once they sort these issues it can win races like this but best we see a run to the finish pain free I think.

 

The one that did catch my eye for a second investment is the ex Skelton horse COLONEL MASTERSON its won off a mark of 103 and placed off marks from 97 to 112, switched Yards and having run the 112 runner up over Course and Distance here, a mark of 107 here gives it a sporting chance provided it's settled in to its new surroundings. Its one to TRACK whatever the result today.

 

 

A race where I think the greater experience of MISTER BELLS  who steps up to 3 miles and should benefit from it and a drop in Class is just preferred to Gentleman De Mai on Chase debut. Another possible F/Cast bet and your choice when markets settle as to whether to back MISTER BELLS to win or a crafty e/w.

 

Cuddly Dudley makes handicap debut and has a nice profile, Prince Dundee looks like a one track specialist at Hexham at the moment, Without Conviction is very much a dark horse as it would have a chance here but the Trainer has repeatedly suggested it needs softer / heavy ground as an excuse for poor runs on Good or Good to Soft. 

 

At bigger Odds I will have a dabble on MAID OF HOUXTY on the form of a specific penultimate run at Kelso where it was runner up off a mark of 88 and that would give it a sporting each way shout IF repeated in a poor race.