Ayr 2.45
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
NORTHERN - Ayr 2.45 - Handicap - Class 4 - 7 furlongs 50 yards - Good (rain about and could go to Good to Soft)
I'm snot sure the favourite Starshiba who is penalised without winning for two solid recent runner up efforts will really appreciate softening ground, so at the price I'm happy to take it on. I think this trip on the ground may also stretch the stamina of the next pair in the market in Classy Al and Vince Lombardi, so I'm also keen to look for more market value.
Spacer is a danger on some formlines and is perhaps the hardest to fathom and Grigadale has a chance on some Irish form but hard to assess at the moment in it's new surroundings. DEPUTY however has its best form off similar marks and runs best with cut in the ground, has proven stamina at this trip and drawn in Stall 7 has tactical options. I can't find any excuses for it and it looks a solid each way bet.
Beltane is an unexposed 3 year old for Keith Dalgleish its had a wind op and has some Course form so has to be feared as it has scope that many others don't have. One that may still have untapped potential is Judgement Call for Linda Perratt and Graham Lee and this pair are real dangers I have not discounted lightly and would be reserves in the order given.
I can see a decent run imminent from Obee Joe who is coming down the handicap and should be added to your Trackers but with a berth in stall 13 it'll need to either ping the stalls or need luck in running and I equally liked stable mate PARYS MOUNTAIN drawn more favourably in Stall 3, its last win was off a mark of 72, it's had genuine excuses the last twice and has won with cut in the ground, the mark has come down to 75, which it has run well off in the past and given the price I think worth a small investment.
TRACKER - Deputy / shrapnel - Parys Mountain (reserve - Beltane)