Ayr - Saturday 18th September

Our Northern Expert will focus on both the SILVER and GOLD CUPS.

 

 

It remains to be seen what impact the rain has on the Draw bias as yesterday was significantly slanted in favour of those drawn lower. As I mentioned on Thursday though, things can change here very quickly and pace is a better way in if a good horse gets a good lead into the final furlong.

 

I looked closely at a few drawn high with Total Commitment would be the most frustrating if it won but I'm going to perm a few others who look just better options on the day. Black Friday caught my eye but I think it is just a few pounds wrong at the moment. I fancied Mid Winster when a non runner recently but I'm not sure this stiff 6 furlongs plays to her strengths and Lord Rapscallion is another I have discarded off my short list purely on a Draw bias concern.

 

So I'm left with 3 picks (I actually think this is a more interesting renewal that the Gold Cup). and a reserve in case of a non-runner.

 

STAXTON is drawn in Stall 2. It's last 3 wins have been off marks of 84 / 88 / 91, gets back to a mark of 91 here and logical that Fentiman may have had option on at least 2 other Easterby runners in the race. If the Draw bias stays as yesterday he has no excuses and should outrun his odds.

 

SOLDIERS MINUTE has had a very frustrating season in a host of big field Sprints but Dalgleish will surely have aimed to have the horse off a prime mark in prime condition at the Meeting. Drawn 6, was 4th in the Gold Cup last year off a mark of 98 and runs off 92 here. I think he can run a massive race and return to form. 

 

GOLDEN APOLLO is my favoured one drawn higher in Stall 19. Golden Apollo is consistent off this sort of mark in big field races, placed 3 times off a mark of 86 and won this race in 2019 off a mark of 88 so no excuses and just needs luck in running.

 

If there is a need for a reserve then I think Magical Spirit despite being a few pounds higher than I would like can have no excuses from a nice low draw.

 

 

-------  

 

 

The 2 lowest draws head the market and look progressive so no surprise to see Great Ambassador and Commanche Falls dominate the race but at the prices of course I want to find something a bit more speculative.

 

It's a shame Chiefofchiefs is a non runner as it figures heavily in my deliberations.

 

Ostilio drawn 21 attracted my eye but has been very well backed, I think put up by somebody like Chapman overnight?

 

LAHORE could run a big race at ridiculous Odds, won off marks of 96 and 1010 in 2020 out of form since but just strikes me as a live danger here and I'll have some shrapnel on him.

 

The 2 picks are the ultra consistent GULLIVER drawn in 8, David O'Meara and Jason Weaver always big dangers in this type of Big Race big field Sprint. It's just 1lb above its last win mark and tactically can go low or centre from this berth.

 

My other one is HEY JONESY who has had a very quiet 2021 so far but as we know can be very competitive when on song. Gets in here off a mark below 100 and drawn next to the 2 market leaders looks sure to get a lovely toe in to the race and perhaps a forgotten horse.

 

TRACKERS - Gulliver / Hey Jonesy (sharapnel Lahore @ 66/1)

 

------