Ayr - Monday 29th November
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
Northern - AYR 1.05 13 Rapid Raider @ 6/1 / 3 Arctic Mann @ 9/2 (please read notes re suggested staking options with 6 Ardera Cross @ 4/1)
Northern - Ayr 2.10 1 Mayo Star @ 10/1 / 2 Calivigny @ 14/1 (please read notes re suggested staking options with 3 Operation Overlord 5/2)
(most bookies going odds to 4th place which is excellent value but beware and check if any still offer if more non-runners)
small e/w stakes / Tricast / Forecast perms as suggested - max 1 point per race in total + small Tricast Perms
odds/ enhancements checked on Oddschecker at 6.45am
1.05 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 11 run - Good to Soft
A decent and competitive Class 5 Handicap Chase.
Ardera Cross is favourite and probably the one they all have to beat but although solid and consistent can often fail to translate opportunities into wins. It did win though back to back here off marks of 105 and 111 in heavy conditions a while back and off a mark of 95 would be solid each way banker material at anything above 4/1 with race fitness on its side.
Don't Need To Know for Mike Smith made several jumping errors on its recent return and there are mixed messages in terms of the best trip and whether rain would be a positive for it, stable mate Mealamix was a 3 mile P2P winner in Ireland but another about whom the jury is currently out.
Morningside has been off for 177 days for Sandy Foster so may need the run but does have a decent 3 mile P2P profile on soft and heavy Going so could well be one to track and keep a close eye on.
The pair most likely to trouble Ardera Cross I think are ARCTIC MANN a winner at 2 miles and 6 furlongs on soft off a mark of 96, has the benefit of having had a run too and off 104 should be competitive here for the Alexander team. The other one would be RAPID RAIDER for Lucinda Russell, it won a 2 miler last time, steps up half a mile and looks progressive but if you go deeper there is one stunning bit of P2P form which saw it beat Enjoy D'Allen over 3 miles a horse who has placed in an Irish National and running off an Irish mark of 142!!!!!!!
It's a shrapnel day but a small Tricast Perm on Ardera Cross / Arctic Mann and Rapid Raider would be my suggestion and a small e/w bet on Ardera Cross and Rapid Raider if I had to pick a preference.
2.10 Handicap Hurdle - Class 4 - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 13 run - Good to Soft
Another competitive race.
A fair few of these have best form on better Going than is likely and the likes of Dr Shirocco, Flood Defence, Go Bob Go and Kiss My Face are passed over for that reason.
Schalke for Rebecca Menzies in form team will be a big danger on handicap debut but like those others best form so far is on Good or Good to Soft but as it has yet to run on anything softer we don't really know what ideal Going is. He's one to keep a close eye on, as is the Yard!
OPERATION OVERLORD was a hard pulling runner up at Carlisle last time up the steep hill, that suggested a horse ready to win and is obviously the one to beat here. A win saver and use in forecast/tricast would be the suggestion.
At the Odds available though a bit of each way shrapnel on MAYO STAR and CALIVIGNY may not be a bad option.
Mayo Star drops in Grade, it has won over Course and Distance in heavy Going off a mark of 125, runs off a mark of 117 here and if in anything like that form in this easier race top weight should not prevent it winning. Calivigny is a Course and Distance winner running off a break of 209 days. It won here last Autumn off a longer break (248 days) off a mark of 112 and followed up off a mark of 116, it's 12 years old now, but I'd imagine they've got plenty of work into the horse and been waiting for the sting to go out of the ground.
Again I'd suggest some each way shrapnel on Mayo Star and Calivigny and a canny Tricast Perm.
It's NOT a day to stake anything silly but some fun bets should be delivering some profit to keep us ticking over.