Ayr - Friday 17th September
By UK Flat / AW (Northern)
Ayr 3.20 Bronze Cup - Class 2 - 6 furlongs - 24 run - Good to Firm - (Showers)
There is a bit of rain forecast but mostly after this race so we'll base assessment on Good / Good to Firm Going.
The visual impression yesterday from a couple of races was that the centre may be marginally the best draw, followed by the far side (low) but it is hard to be conclusive as pace and an early lead horse could switch things around quickly and we've seen before with these Bronze / Silver / Gold Cup races how focussing to much on the draw can lead you down blind alleys.
I narrowed down to a short list of 6, of which I think that Be Proud and Show Me Show Me are worthy of a mention, although both I feel are better at shorter and this is a taxing 6 furlongs that may not quite play to their strengths.
Of the remainder my favoured pair are DANZAN who has run in to placed finishes in decent races many times since it's last win in early 2018. It runs from what could be a perfect pitch in Stall 13, and really does deserve the luck in running needed to win one of these and the Yard / Jockey, trip; Going, handicap mark and consistency all point to a big run.
The other one is FORTAMOR who is drawn in Stall 10 so another who could run centre or on the far side if that's advantageous. Again, I can't find any reason why it won't be very competitive with trip, going and handicap mark all earning big ticks in the right boxes.
If you fancy a couple of shrapnel bets at bigger Odds and a couple for Tricast Perms, then I would suggest a small investment on FLYING PURSUIT whose record at this meeting is very good and who is well handicapped and suited to these big field races and MUSICALITY who has been running well on AW and who may be on a very nice turf mark and yet to fully show full potential I feel, are lively outsiders.
TRACKERS -: DANZAN + FORTAMOR (shrapnel bets -: 10 Flying Pursuit @ 33/1 + 2 Musicality @ 20/1 )
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In the 5.00 race I will have a Tracker bet on FLYING MOON whose form and profile suggest a big run and whose Odds at around 16/1 - 20/1 look over generous.
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