Wednesday 7th May
By SP2A Analysis
CHESTER 3.40 Handicap - Class 3 - 6 furlongs - 3 year old - 13 run - Good
BOB MALI @ 7/4 has a prime draw here and looks a very strong favourite but if you think a price below 2/1 is too skinny then don't have the win saver. I would say anything around 2/1 on the basis of possibility and probability is a value win bet.
There are 3 others who caught my eye and of them I think that Diligently @ 9/1, drawn in Stall 1 , may both lack the race sharpness and fitness to fully take advantage of the Draw off a break of 258 days. Cyclonite is drawn in Stall 6, not a bad berth, but best so far on the AW but a danger purely of form analysis.
I will have one e/w punt in this race and it is CABELLEROSA who has some Course experience and who drops back to 6 furlongs and slightly eased in grade and from Stall 3 should be looking to place in the first 3 as the least of expectations. (North)
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CHESTER 4.45 - Handicap - Class 3 - 7 furlongs - 14 run - Good
I seriously considered almost half of the field after an initial look at all 14 runners.
Pearl Eye is race fit but best at a mile and drawn high but does have some Course form at a big price. Monsieur Fudge is quite short in the market for one drawn in the Car Park but this usually fast starter could be very dangerous if getting a very fast start and isn't lightly discounted. Paws For Thought drawn widest of all is a similarly fast starter and there could be carnage if these two break and head across the field seeking the rail but once again will need to rely on going on the B of the Bang (as Linford Christie used to say).
I want a couple in this with enhanced place odds available and my 3rd rated (so a handy reserve if we had an early non runner is 4 SPIRIT GENIE @ 8/1. A Course and Distance winner last May and he came from the back of the field that day so Stall 9 may not be a bad place to come from IF getting luck in running. If you want a third pick to attack 4 places , this is the one.
My top 2 rated though are KOY KOY who has some very decent form here, AW fit and ready to go, has had a wind operation and this is second run back after that and Stall 6 is a very handy place tactically to sit on the shoulder of something breaking from a lower Stall or covering off fast starters outside you. Drawn next in Stall 5 is LIMARTY DREAMS a Course winner who is decent early and fresh, like many in the Yard, this one gets some new headgear with first time cheekpieces.
You do have to adopt a bit of a "thick skin" mentality to racing here as "luck in running" is more of an issue than almost anywhere else so I always think it's bst here to both celebrate a winner and suffer a loser with a degree of pragmatism quite unlike anywhere else. (The Advisor)