Wednesday 4th September
By SP2A Analysis
Hamilton 5.10 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 1/2 furlong - 14 run - Heavy
A fair few of these won't appreciate the underfoot conditions and equally a fair few will be stretched by an extended mile on this tough uphill finish in the deep ground.
The likes of Darbuck will like heavy but not the trip, Likleman is a decent 3 year old but who looks quite exposed in these conditions, not many of the remainder really register with me as likely winners.
My clear top 2 rated are HOSTELRY who has a win in heavy ground off a mark of 63 and a decent run here on it's sole Course start and compared with most of the rest it's hard to find any real chinks. ZUMAATY is not in great current form but is a past Course and Distance winner for old connections in soft ground off 52, has also won in heavy and Jim Goldie will certainly expect an improved run in these conditions.
If the 14 runners remain and enhanced places apply, there is just one at bigger odds worth a look and possibly a small poke and that's Recorwoman whose return to soft/heavy is a definite plus with a win off 52 at Nottingham over 10 furlongs the stand out effort.
(Northern)
-------
Bath 5.17 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 13 run - Good to Soft
At the top end of the market Letmebetheboss and Imprint will take some beating but i can't really distinguish between them and Ladypacksapunch, a Course stalwart and with all being less than 6/1 in the market, anything other than Forecasts or Tricast looks too chancy a bet.
I really think that this is a great chance of a win and if not a place though at a better value price for BOND SPIRIT a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 50 in May, has won off 52 on the AW and runs off 52 here, quite lightly race and they keep it fresh running on average once every 4-5 weeks, they look to have kept away from extremes of ground, so I'll be disappointed if we don't get some place money at least.
The other one to note for a smaller e/w punt with most bookies going to 4th place is ENDOFASTORM who was 5th beaten only 2 and 1/2 lengths at the Course over 13 furlongs last August and for whom this drop in trip looks a wise move off a mark 7lbs lower. The horse has won on the AW and not too many of these have ever ventured in to the winners enclosure. (RJ)
-------
Kilbeggan 4.55 - Maiden Hurdle - 3 miles 1/2 furlong.
They will likely be quickly strung out all over the County here with the top 5 in the market, Coole cherry; Isle Of Sark, For Fear Of fRost; Charlie Dilemma and Body Builder most likely to dominate. Some if not all have stamina and jumping ability to prove though and one really caught my eye at a nice each way price.
JOHN STOREY has had 3 runs so should qualify for a handicap, strong belief he gets this trip and even stronger belief we've yet to see the best of him. I'm intrigued enough to add him to the TRACKER from today as I think he has a nice handicap in him.Whether they would want to spaff up a possibly nice mark by running a win or place here is the moot point, but on a quiet day, worth TRACKING and following if nothing else and I will personally have a small e/w investment. (MG)