Wednesday 30th October
By SP2A Analysis
Dundalk 5.15 Handicap - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 13 run - Standard
A pretty simple logic to my analysis here and through the winter. It's mostly low grade bookie fodder but in a race like todays, very few have proven form at the trip, a number of 10 furlongs specialists in here, the usual handful with no discernable form at all and as usual 2-3 at the top end of the market whose chances are logical but whose general inconsistency suggests it's foolish to be taking too short a price.
Forlio; who heads the market has never run here and not shown anything in two AW runs in the UK. Glyde Ranger is not really proven at the trip, Chopsticks is consistently inconsistent, Numidia is on a significantly inflated mark but ticks every other box and Pipcoul is perhaps the most likely winner but little win and not any e/w value.
Looking at the remainder, I think that both DOCTOR GRACE a Course winner over 10 furlongs who has run through the line a few times at this trip and suggestions it may now be its best trip off an OK mark but aided by a 10lbs Claimer and VELVET AND VINE beaten 7 lengths on its sole Course and Distance appearance but a few glimmers of form there and since who is now a whopping 12lbs lower in the handicap, so notionally 12 lengths better in, have both shown enough to suggest that at double figure odds they may be worth a small poke to place in the top 4 here (MG)
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TRACKERS
Nottingham 4.08 Star Start
Kempton 7.30 Diamondsinthesand