Wednesday 28th May
By SP2A Analysis
Hamilton 4.30 - Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile 5 furlongs - 13 run - Good to Soft
The top 4 in the market are generally unexposed but tightly packed in the 4-1 > 7/1 price range. Alnayef is a nice recruit for Jim Goldi, who runs a few and one I will TRACK forwards as I will also do with the far more experienced Forza Orta, this one would usually be in better company but after a disappointing 2024, they have gone for a wind operation, if it works this one can be winning again.
There are 3 that really catch my eye and in preference order they are KITSUNE POWER as the rain, the trip and the return of David Allen are all ticks in important boxes and it will be very disappointing if this one isn't placed at the very least. I narrowly prefer the bigger priced TAFSIR, a Course and Distance winner for whom the ease in the ground is also a big positive and it is back down to Class 4 and running off 75 with a 7lbs claim, with a last win mark of 73. I think this one will be back so get on asap. The 3rd rated is TWO AULD POTS a Course and Distance winner off 73 last season who has had a similar preparation and off a mark of 69, could be very competitive too here IF you want to play the enhanced places on offer (Northern)
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Beverley 4.40 - Handicap - Class 6 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 12 run - Good
Arch Legend and Sawgrass are worthy favourites but i can't split them for win purposes and neither at their prices hold each way value. STAR DELTA is possibly the one to beat anyway and if you wanted a "win saver" on anything in here it would logically be that one.
A chunk of the field will likely benefit from the run so my speculative each way confidence lies with CLOUDY ROSE, a Course and Distance winner who has had a run at Brighton, won second time it was out last season and also has Course and Distance winning form and probably adroitly placed here by his always under-rated Trainer. If there is one at a really juicy price it might be SASSY GLORY who has been competitive a few times and a berth in Stall 12 is not the graveyard it used to be here, a bold run would not surprise. (RJ)
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Newton Abbot 2.48 - Novice Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 2 and 1/2 furlongs - Class 5 - Good (possibly Good to Soft after deluge yesterday) - 14 run
Mr Le Philosophe looks a worthy favourite but I'm happy to take him on as Going may be softer than initially advertised.
Stringinhisstep ran very well to place at 40/1 at the last meeting here, whether he can repeat it, I'm not so sure but he was my 3rd best rated. I will TRACK forwards both La Tranaria, an interesting one for Nick Litmoden and also Marley Head, a Tizzard horse who is being given time to grow and fully develop but who may well reward patience at some point later in the summer.
On the day though the pair I fancy to place at least at nice prices are HURST HILL who had a couple of decent course runs last season, rain is a plus for this one and I on't think the early 20/1 will last long once that form is scrutinised. PRIVILEGE is interesting on its penultimate run, can be excused a poor run last time (jumping error) and ne that looks like a bit of a potential springer at this trip (Robin)
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Wexford 8.00 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles - 14 run - Good to Yielding
The fact that 2 of the 3 reserves are priced at 9/2 and 13/2 suggests a lack of depth, I don't think either reserve would merit a bet "with a run"
BUTCHERS BILL merits a win saver bet and is a solid favourite and preferred to Kyle Valley at the head of the market.
Ashdale Flyer may revive off this sort of mark, Diamond Diva and Ashlia Dancer probably need this run for fitness, Imboic is one of those who has so far flattered to deceive too often for comfort but is one of those who can find form and my 4th rated who is Native Song would be a handy backup if we have an early non runner. Tango Theatre has had 2 runs back off an extended break, would have every chance on 2023 form and another to monitor.
My second rated behind BUTCHERS BILL is NO FUSSING, this one has been competitive in the past off marks over 100, has dropped to a mark of 90 and with a 7lbs Claimer up, I will be VERY disappointed if not in the first 4-5 home and the same applies to TWOPLUSTWO EQUALS who has delivered promise on enough occasions to suggest 33/1 is a nice backable price. (MG)
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TRACKERS
Cartmel 7.10 - See The Clouds (e/w chance with strong local connections - noted in running previously)
Wexford 6.00 - Pauls Dream (D Mullins - 1 ride angle)