Wednesday 26th June
By SP2A Analysis
Carlisle 4.40 - Carlisle Bell Handicap - Class 4 - 1 mile - 17 run - Good to Firm
A typically competitive renewal and whilst plenty have logical chances we will focus on Good to Firm form at the trip in this Grade or above for the most serious form pointers.
MOSTAWAA won this race last year on Good to Soft ground but has winning form on Good to Firm and off a very eye-catching mark of 77 has an excellent chance of defending the crown. Leadenhall is a dangerous one who could be running in to form, I'm not over keen today on On A Session or Billyb at the trip up this steep climb and would view Yasser and Orbaan similarly as regards the trip and conditions.
I can make a case for the likes of Lahab who is very likely to try to make it all here and could get a soft lead but one who would normally be running on empty in the last furlong up this steep climb. Detective, a 5 time Course winner and Strongbowe who was beaten a head in the Consolation race last year but who has been stone last in 3 runs this season are similar types.
At the big-priced end of the market, the veteran Redarna who is very dangerous on rattling Good to Firm Going almost got a nomination but I just prefer MAYSONG who was winning Class 2 races this month last year and who has slipped to a very nice mark.
I also found if hrd to split MILLION THANKS, who is in the TRACKER along with Rogue Sea (not fancied here) who carries an 8lbs penalty for a win last time but who is still below its normal handicap mark of the past few seasons and Hale End, who is an improving 4 year old upped 5lbs for a facile win last time in Class 5 and who would be 4th rated overall so reserve tip (The Advisor)
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Worcester 2.53 - Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 7 furlongs - 14 run - Good
Bells of Stamford and Eightytwoteam head the market, the former is inconsistent and you'd be relying on cheek-pieces working again and the latter is solid but not jumping off the page as a sure winner. Malinas Island is very promising over hurdles, no conclusive Chase form yet and has had a wind operation after a very disappointing run when tipped last time. I've added to the TRACKER as this one has the ability to win races but current wellbeing just puts me off but a big danger once fit and healthy.
Head On was a very progressive horse a few seasons ago but has struggled off a 2 year break but a few recent signs suggest some ability remains and he is one to watch.
We have DIRK GENTLY in the TRACKER and I'm happy to invest in him today, a nice run at 3 miles last time proved that stamina is there and I'll be disappointed if he's not placed top 3 in this at the very least. EASKEY LAD is also in the TRACKER but still struggling to get back to some very impressive form last year winning off 92 and 98 including on Good to Firm, they swap headgear and it's one of those that will surely click at some point, I've just made him 3rd rated here and will personally have a small side bet!
GETTHEPOT is an ex Tracker horse who has become disappointing but still only a 9 year old but has dropped to a very nice mark and I just have a bit more than a hunch that his time will come again starting today.
(DT)